Using a Nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in Argentina

Real-time judgment of current and future business cycle conditions is one of the mayor challenges monetary policy conduct faces. GDP Nowcasting has been increasingly taken into account by central banks as a measure of immediate perception of economic conditions. We conduct a pseudo-real-time one qu...

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Autores principales: D'Amato, Laura Inés, Garegnani, María Lorena, Blanco, Emilio
Formato: Objeto de conferencia
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2013
Materias:
Ciencias Económicas
Nowcasting
bridge equations
mixed-frequency data
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/173854
Aporte de:
SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata
id I19-R120-10915-173854
record_format dspace
spelling I19-R120-10915-1738542024-11-29T20:37:02Z http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/173854 Using a Nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in Argentina D'Amato, Laura Inés Garegnani, María Lorena Blanco, Emilio 2013-11 2013 2024-11-29T15:22:02Z en Ciencias Económicas Nowcasting bridge equations mixed-frequency data Real-time judgment of current and future business cycle conditions is one of the mayor challenges monetary policy conduct faces. GDP Nowcasting has been increasingly taken into account by central banks as a measure of immediate perception of economic conditions. We conduct a pseudo-real-time one quarter ahead forecasting exercise of GDP growth using bridge equations. Comparing forecasting performance our results to the typical AR benchmark, we conclude that the Nowcasts is superior in almost 74% of the cases. Using the Giacomoni and White (2004) test, we also concude this dfferences are statistically significant. Evaluar en tiempo real las condiciones económicas actuales y futuras es uno de los mayores retos a los que se enfrenta la política monetaria. El Nowcasting de actividad representa una potencial medida con la cual los bancos centrales pueden estudiar percepciones inmediatas de las condiciones económicas. Realizamos un pronóstico de crecimiento del PIB de un trimestre adelante en pseudo-tiempo real mediante bridge equations. Comparando la capacidad predictiva de nuestro ejercicio con un benchmark AR(1), concluimos que el Nowcast es superior en el 74% de los casos. Usando el test de Giacomini y Whte (2004), comprobamos que estas diferencias son significativas. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas Objeto de conferencia Objeto de conferencia http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf
institution Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str I-19
repository_str R-120
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
language Inglés
topic Ciencias Económicas
Nowcasting
bridge equations
mixed-frequency data
spellingShingle Ciencias Económicas
Nowcasting
bridge equations
mixed-frequency data
D'Amato, Laura Inés
Garegnani, María Lorena
Blanco, Emilio
Using a Nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in Argentina
topic_facet Ciencias Económicas
Nowcasting
bridge equations
mixed-frequency data
description Real-time judgment of current and future business cycle conditions is one of the mayor challenges monetary policy conduct faces. GDP Nowcasting has been increasingly taken into account by central banks as a measure of immediate perception of economic conditions. We conduct a pseudo-real-time one quarter ahead forecasting exercise of GDP growth using bridge equations. Comparing forecasting performance our results to the typical AR benchmark, we conclude that the Nowcasts is superior in almost 74% of the cases. Using the Giacomoni and White (2004) test, we also concude this dfferences are statistically significant.
format Objeto de conferencia
Objeto de conferencia
author D'Amato, Laura Inés
Garegnani, María Lorena
Blanco, Emilio
author_facet D'Amato, Laura Inés
Garegnani, María Lorena
Blanco, Emilio
author_sort D'Amato, Laura Inés
title Using a Nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in Argentina
title_short Using a Nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in Argentina
title_full Using a Nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in Argentina
title_fullStr Using a Nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Using a Nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in Argentina
title_sort using a nowcast approach to assess business cycle conditions in argentina
publishDate 2013
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/173854
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