Stability of expectations and severity of crises

We show that the severity of banking and debt crises is negatively related to the volatility of GDP growth expectations. Series of expectations are built by using a stochastic-gain learning algorithm whose predictions match survey data on output growth expectations well. We construct several measure...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo, Guzmán, Martín, Howitt, Peter
Formato: Objeto de conferencia
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2015
Materias:
Ciencias Económicas
Expectations
Volatility
Financial crises
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170380
Aporte de:
SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata
id I19-R120-10915-170380
record_format dspace
spelling I19-R120-10915-1703802024-09-19T20:10:25Z http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170380 Stability of expectations and severity of crises Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo Guzmán, Martín Howitt, Peter 2015-11 2015 2024-09-19T17:26:33Z en Ciencias Económicas Expectations Volatility Financial crises We show that the severity of banking and debt crises is negatively related to the volatility of GDP growth expectations. Series of expectations are built by using a stochastic-gain learning algorithm whose predictions match survey data on output growth expectations well. We construct several measures of severity of crises that capture output growth losses associated with crises. Our empirical analysis addresses Hyman Minsky’s theoretical conjecture (part of his so-called Financial Instability Hypothesis) that macroeconomic stability is conducive to high leverage, which in turn makes a crisis more severe once it happens. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas Objeto de conferencia Objeto de conferencia http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf
institution Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str I-19
repository_str R-120
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
language Inglés
topic Ciencias Económicas
Expectations
Volatility
Financial crises
spellingShingle Ciencias Económicas
Expectations
Volatility
Financial crises
Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo
Guzmán, Martín
Howitt, Peter
Stability of expectations and severity of crises
topic_facet Ciencias Económicas
Expectations
Volatility
Financial crises
description We show that the severity of banking and debt crises is negatively related to the volatility of GDP growth expectations. Series of expectations are built by using a stochastic-gain learning algorithm whose predictions match survey data on output growth expectations well. We construct several measures of severity of crises that capture output growth losses associated with crises. Our empirical analysis addresses Hyman Minsky’s theoretical conjecture (part of his so-called Financial Instability Hypothesis) that macroeconomic stability is conducive to high leverage, which in turn makes a crisis more severe once it happens.
format Objeto de conferencia
Objeto de conferencia
author Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo
Guzmán, Martín
Howitt, Peter
author_facet Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo
Guzmán, Martín
Howitt, Peter
author_sort Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo
title Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_short Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_full Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_fullStr Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_full_unstemmed Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_sort stability of expectations and severity of crises
publishDate 2015
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170380
work_keys_str_mv AT gluzmannpabloalfredo stabilityofexpectationsandseverityofcrises
AT guzmanmartin stabilityofexpectationsandseverityofcrises
AT howittpeter stabilityofexpectationsandseverityofcrises
_version_ 1824075653324996608

Ejemplares similares