Oil & Debt Windfalls and Fiscal Dynamics in Bolivia

During 2004-06 Bolivia experienced a five-fold increase in oil revenues due to tax/contractual innovations, higher prices and larger volumes at the same time that a multi-lateral debt reduction initiative trimmed roughly one third of the public external debt. The political economy setting of this en...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Catena, Marcelo, Navajas, Fernando Heberto
Formato: Objeto de conferencia
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2006
Materias:
Ciencias Económicas
Bolivia
Public Debt Sustainability
Risk Analysis
Energy
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170372
Aporte de:
SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata
id I19-R120-10915-170372
record_format dspace
spelling I19-R120-10915-1703722024-09-20T04:08:49Z http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170372 Oil & Debt Windfalls and Fiscal Dynamics in Bolivia Catena, Marcelo Navajas, Fernando Heberto 2006-11 2006 2024-09-19T16:40:24Z en Ciencias Económicas Bolivia Public Debt Sustainability Risk Analysis Energy During 2004-06 Bolivia experienced a five-fold increase in oil revenues due to tax/contractual innovations, higher prices and larger volumes at the same time that a multi-lateral debt reduction initiative trimmed roughly one third of the public external debt. The political economy setting of this environment entails a new hydrocarbons law that automatically decentralize expenditures to local governments and nationalization of the oil industry. We model fiscal dynamics in Bolivia in an stochastic framework and find that the new status-quo will generate double reversions of primary surplus and a public debt path that may fall short of being pleasant in the presence of unfettered fiscal spending and/or decline in international energy prices and gas demand from its neighbors. Even though it is difficult to asses the underlying fiscal policy reaction function to future developments in Bolivia, we conclude that governance of the process of allocation and distribution of the oil rent is essential to the short to medium term sustainability of the new Bolivian model. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas Objeto de conferencia Objeto de conferencia http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf
institution Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str I-19
repository_str R-120
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
language Inglés
topic Ciencias Económicas
Bolivia
Public Debt Sustainability
Risk Analysis
Energy
spellingShingle Ciencias Económicas
Bolivia
Public Debt Sustainability
Risk Analysis
Energy
Catena, Marcelo
Navajas, Fernando Heberto
Oil & Debt Windfalls and Fiscal Dynamics in Bolivia
topic_facet Ciencias Económicas
Bolivia
Public Debt Sustainability
Risk Analysis
Energy
description During 2004-06 Bolivia experienced a five-fold increase in oil revenues due to tax/contractual innovations, higher prices and larger volumes at the same time that a multi-lateral debt reduction initiative trimmed roughly one third of the public external debt. The political economy setting of this environment entails a new hydrocarbons law that automatically decentralize expenditures to local governments and nationalization of the oil industry. We model fiscal dynamics in Bolivia in an stochastic framework and find that the new status-quo will generate double reversions of primary surplus and a public debt path that may fall short of being pleasant in the presence of unfettered fiscal spending and/or decline in international energy prices and gas demand from its neighbors. Even though it is difficult to asses the underlying fiscal policy reaction function to future developments in Bolivia, we conclude that governance of the process of allocation and distribution of the oil rent is essential to the short to medium term sustainability of the new Bolivian model.
format Objeto de conferencia
Objeto de conferencia
author Catena, Marcelo
Navajas, Fernando Heberto
author_facet Catena, Marcelo
Navajas, Fernando Heberto
author_sort Catena, Marcelo
title Oil & Debt Windfalls and Fiscal Dynamics in Bolivia
title_short Oil & Debt Windfalls and Fiscal Dynamics in Bolivia
title_full Oil & Debt Windfalls and Fiscal Dynamics in Bolivia
title_fullStr Oil & Debt Windfalls and Fiscal Dynamics in Bolivia
title_full_unstemmed Oil & Debt Windfalls and Fiscal Dynamics in Bolivia
title_sort oil & debt windfalls and fiscal dynamics in bolivia
publishDate 2006
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170372
work_keys_str_mv AT catenamarcelo oildebtwindfallsandfiscaldynamicsinbolivia
AT navajasfernandoheberto oildebtwindfallsandfiscaldynamicsinbolivia
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