Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin

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Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of...

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Autores principales:	Barros, V.R., Garavaglia, C.R., Doyle, M.E.
Formato:	JOUR
Materias:	Climate change floods La Plata Basin twenty-first century climate change climate modeling extreme event general circulation model precipitation (climatology) rainfall trend analysis twenty first century Argentina Brazil
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p373_Barros
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	todo:paper_15715124_v11_n4_p373_Barros
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spelling	todo:paper_15715124_v11_n4_p373_Barros2023-10-03T16:27:16Z Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin Barros, V.R. Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E. Climate change floods La Plata Basin twenty-first century climate change climate modeling extreme event general circulation model precipitation (climatology) rainfall trend analysis twenty first century Argentina Brazil La Plata Basin Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the control period 1981-1990. During the past 50 years, in part of LPB, there was a positive trend in annual precipitation. Two of the models indicate the maintenance of this trend over the northeast of Argentina and south of Brazil, while over the southernmost region of LPB, all models show increasing precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. Trends are less ambiguous for extreme precipitation, especially in the southernmost part of LPB, where huge and long-lasting floods take place over plains with small drainage. Months with extreme precipitation in LPB present a pronounced annual cycle with higher frequency from October to April. According to the RCM projections, this pattern would persist during the twenty-first century. Although, other factors cannot be discarded, the projected trends towards higher extreme monthly precipitation seem to be caused by an increase in the moisture convergence in the lower atmosphere over the east of LPB. © 2013 © 2013 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p373_Barros
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Climate change floods La Plata Basin twenty-first century climate change climate modeling extreme event general circulation model precipitation (climatology) rainfall trend analysis twenty first century Argentina Brazil La Plata Basin
spellingShingle	Climate change floods La Plata Basin twenty-first century climate change climate modeling extreme event general circulation model precipitation (climatology) rainfall trend analysis twenty first century Argentina Brazil La Plata Basin Barros, V.R. Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E. Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
topic_facet	Climate change floods La Plata Basin twenty-first century climate change climate modeling extreme event general circulation model precipitation (climatology) rainfall trend analysis twenty first century Argentina Brazil La Plata Basin
description	Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the control period 1981-1990. During the past 50 years, in part of LPB, there was a positive trend in annual precipitation. Two of the models indicate the maintenance of this trend over the northeast of Argentina and south of Brazil, while over the southernmost region of LPB, all models show increasing precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. Trends are less ambiguous for extreme precipitation, especially in the southernmost part of LPB, where huge and long-lasting floods take place over plains with small drainage. Months with extreme precipitation in LPB present a pronounced annual cycle with higher frequency from October to April. According to the RCM projections, this pattern would persist during the twenty-first century. Although, other factors cannot be discarded, the projected trends towards higher extreme monthly precipitation seem to be caused by an increase in the moisture convergence in the lower atmosphere over the east of LPB. © 2013 © 2013 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.
format	JOUR
author	Barros, V.R. Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E.
author_facet	Barros, V.R. Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E.
author_sort	Barros, V.R.
title	Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_short	Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_full	Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_fullStr	Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_full_unstemmed	Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_sort	twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the plata basin
url	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p373_Barros
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Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin

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