Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events

The importance of forecasting extreme wet and dry conditions from weeks to months in advance relies on the need to prevent considerable socioeconomic losses, mainly in regions of large populations and where agriculture is a key value for the economies, such as southern South America (SSA). To improv...

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Autores principales: Spennemann, P.C., Rivera, J.A., Osman, M., Celeste Saulo, A., Penalba, O.C.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
Atmosphere-land interaction
Forecast verification/skill
Precipitation
Seasonal forecasting
Soil moisture
South America
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1525755X_v18_n8_p2297_Spennemann
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_1525755X_v18_n8_p2297_Spennemann
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spelling todo:paper_1525755X_v18_n8_p2297_Spennemann2023-10-03T16:21:02Z Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events Spennemann, P.C. Rivera, J.A. Osman, M. Celeste Saulo, A. Penalba, O.C. Atmosphere-land interaction Forecast verification/skill Precipitation Seasonal forecasting Soil moisture South America The importance of forecasting extreme wet and dry conditions from weeks to months in advance relies on the need to prevent considerable socioeconomic losses, mainly in regions of large populations and where agriculture is a key value for the economies, such as southern South America (SSA). To improve the understanding of the performance and uncertainties of seasonal soil moisture and precipitation forecasts over SSA, this study aims to 1) perform a general assessment of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), soil moisture and precipitation forecasts against observations and soil moisture simulations based on GLDAS, version 2.0; 2) evaluate the ability of CFSv2 to represent wet and dry events through the forecasted standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized soil moisture anomalies (SSMA); and 3) analyze the capability of a statistical methodology (merging observations and forecasts) in representing a severe drought event. Results show that both SPI and SSMA forecast skill are regionally and seasonally dependent. In general, a fast degradation of the forecasts skill is observed as the lead time increases, resulting in almost no added value with regard to climatology at lead times longer than 3 months. Additionally, a better performance of the SSMA forecasts is observed compared to SPI calculated using three months of precipitation (SPI3), with a higher skill for dry events against wet events. The CFSv2 forecasts are able to represent the spatial patterns of the 2008/09 severe drought event, although it shows crucial limitations regarding the identification of drought onset, duration, severity, and demise, considering both meteorological (SPI) and agricultural (SSMA) drought conditions. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1525755X_v18_n8_p2297_Spennemann
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Atmosphere-land interaction
Forecast verification/skill
Precipitation
Seasonal forecasting
Soil moisture
South America
spellingShingle Atmosphere-land interaction
Forecast verification/skill
Precipitation
Seasonal forecasting
Soil moisture
South America
Spennemann, P.C.
Rivera, J.A.
Osman, M.
Celeste Saulo, A.
Penalba, O.C.
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events
topic_facet Atmosphere-land interaction
Forecast verification/skill
Precipitation
Seasonal forecasting
Soil moisture
South America
description The importance of forecasting extreme wet and dry conditions from weeks to months in advance relies on the need to prevent considerable socioeconomic losses, mainly in regions of large populations and where agriculture is a key value for the economies, such as southern South America (SSA). To improve the understanding of the performance and uncertainties of seasonal soil moisture and precipitation forecasts over SSA, this study aims to 1) perform a general assessment of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), soil moisture and precipitation forecasts against observations and soil moisture simulations based on GLDAS, version 2.0; 2) evaluate the ability of CFSv2 to represent wet and dry events through the forecasted standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized soil moisture anomalies (SSMA); and 3) analyze the capability of a statistical methodology (merging observations and forecasts) in representing a severe drought event. Results show that both SPI and SSMA forecast skill are regionally and seasonally dependent. In general, a fast degradation of the forecasts skill is observed as the lead time increases, resulting in almost no added value with regard to climatology at lead times longer than 3 months. Additionally, a better performance of the SSMA forecasts is observed compared to SPI calculated using three months of precipitation (SPI3), with a higher skill for dry events against wet events. The CFSv2 forecasts are able to represent the spatial patterns of the 2008/09 severe drought event, although it shows crucial limitations regarding the identification of drought onset, duration, severity, and demise, considering both meteorological (SPI) and agricultural (SSMA) drought conditions. © 2017 American Meteorological Society.
format JOUR
author Spennemann, P.C.
Rivera, J.A.
Osman, M.
Celeste Saulo, A.
Penalba, O.C.
author_facet Spennemann, P.C.
Rivera, J.A.
Osman, M.
Celeste Saulo, A.
Penalba, O.C.
author_sort Spennemann, P.C.
title Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events
title_short Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events
title_full Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events
title_fullStr Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events
title_sort assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over southern south america with emphasis on dry and wet events
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1525755X_v18_n8_p2297_Spennemann
work_keys_str_mv AT spennemannpc assessmentofseasonalsoilmoistureforecastsoversouthernsouthamericawithemphasisondryandwetevents
AT riveraja assessmentofseasonalsoilmoistureforecastsoversouthernsouthamericawithemphasisondryandwetevents
AT osmanm assessmentofseasonalsoilmoistureforecastsoversouthernsouthamericawithemphasisondryandwetevents
AT celestesauloa assessmentofseasonalsoilmoistureforecastsoversouthernsouthamericawithemphasisondryandwetevents
AT penalbaoc assessmentofseasonalsoilmoistureforecastsoversouthernsouthamericawithemphasisondryandwetevents
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