Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin

Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitation averaged over three regions of the southern part of the La Plata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices: two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheri...

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Autores principales:	Garavaglia, C.R., Doyle, M.E., Barros, V.R.
Formato:	JOUR
Materias:	Extreme monthly precipitation Floods Indexes Mid-level tropospheric circulation Moisture convergence Probabilities Southeastern south america
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v21_n3_p553_Garavaglia
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	todo:paper_13504827_v21_n3_p553_Garavaglia
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spelling	todo:paper_13504827_v21_n3_p553_Garavaglia2023-10-03T16:10:01Z Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E. Barros, V.R. Extreme monthly precipitation Floods Indexes Mid-level tropospheric circulation Moisture convergence Probabilities Southeastern south america Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitation averaged over three regions of the southern part of the La Plata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices: two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheric circulation over southern South America. The first region includes southern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, north of Uruguay and the western sector of southern Brazil, the second region stretches over part of southern Brazil, while the third region, surrounding the Plata Estuary extends over western Uruguay and eastern Argentina between 37 ° S and 32 ° S. Regional monthly precipitation was considered extreme when it exceeded its mean value plus one standard deviation. Conditional empirical probabilities of Months with Extreme Precipitation (MEP) are more than twice and even four times higher than climatic probabilities when they are calculated under the restriction that the atmospheric indices were beyond certain extreme thresholds empirically defined. Combined conditional probability is even higher when the values of two or the three indices over their respective thresholds take place at the same time, but these cases are less frequent. The index that renders higher conditional probabilities is the one that accounts for the low level moisture convergence in a region that is basically to the west and outside of the three regions. This reflects the fact that most of the mesoconvective systems, which originate to the west of these regions and then move eastwards, produce heavy precipitation that lead to monthly accumulated extremes. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v21_n3_p553_Garavaglia
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Extreme monthly precipitation Floods Indexes Mid-level tropospheric circulation Moisture convergence Probabilities Southeastern south america
spellingShingle	Extreme monthly precipitation Floods Indexes Mid-level tropospheric circulation Moisture convergence Probabilities Southeastern south america Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E. Barros, V.R. Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin
topic_facet	Extreme monthly precipitation Floods Indexes Mid-level tropospheric circulation Moisture convergence Probabilities Southeastern south america
description	Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitation averaged over three regions of the southern part of the La Plata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices: two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheric circulation over southern South America. The first region includes southern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, north of Uruguay and the western sector of southern Brazil, the second region stretches over part of southern Brazil, while the third region, surrounding the Plata Estuary extends over western Uruguay and eastern Argentina between 37 ° S and 32 ° S. Regional monthly precipitation was considered extreme when it exceeded its mean value plus one standard deviation. Conditional empirical probabilities of Months with Extreme Precipitation (MEP) are more than twice and even four times higher than climatic probabilities when they are calculated under the restriction that the atmospheric indices were beyond certain extreme thresholds empirically defined. Combined conditional probability is even higher when the values of two or the three indices over their respective thresholds take place at the same time, but these cases are less frequent. The index that renders higher conditional probabilities is the one that accounts for the low level moisture convergence in a region that is basically to the west and outside of the three regions. This reflects the fact that most of the mesoconvective systems, which originate to the west of these regions and then move eastwards, produce heavy precipitation that lead to monthly accumulated extremes. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.
format	JOUR
author	Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E. Barros, V.R.
author_facet	Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E. Barros, V.R.
author_sort	Garavaglia, C.R.
title	Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin
title_short	Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin
title_full	Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin
title_fullStr	Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin
title_full_unstemmed	Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin
title_sort	statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in la plata basin
url	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v21_n3_p553_Garavaglia
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Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin

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