Simulation of a baroclinic wave with the WRF regional model: Sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment

A sensitivity study to perturbations in the initial conditions in a simulated evolution of a baroclinic wave using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model is discussed in this paper. With the goal of analysing the impacts of these perturbations in the context of weather forecast an...

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Autores principales: Blázquez, J., Pessacg, N.L., Gonzalez, P.L.M.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
Cyclone
Error growth
Initial conditions
Perturbations
Southeastern South America
WRF model
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v20_n4_p447_Blazquez
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Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_13504827_v20_n4_p447_Blazquez
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spelling todo:paper_13504827_v20_n4_p447_Blazquez2023-10-03T16:10:00Z Simulation of a baroclinic wave with the WRF regional model: Sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment Blázquez, J. Pessacg, N.L. Gonzalez, P.L.M. Cyclone Error growth Initial conditions Perturbations Southeastern South America WRF model A sensitivity study to perturbations in the initial conditions in a simulated evolution of a baroclinic wave using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model is discussed in this paper. With the goal of analysing the impacts of these perturbations in the context of weather forecast and also with the aim of exploring the presence of preferred directions of growth in the errors, two cases were analysed: an ideal experiment using a case study available from the WRF set-up and a simulation of a real evolution of a mid-latitude cyclone over Southeastern South America (SESA) and the Atlantic Ocean. In the ideal experiment two spatial structures were considered for the perturbations, random and sinusoidal noise, while for the real experiment only sinusoidal structures were considered. These perturbations were then applied to the initial conditions of temperature and zonal wind. Additionally, simulations with an increment in atmospheric moisture were performed for the real experiment. It was found in both real and ideal cases that the temperature errors tend to organize in a preferable direction of growth, although this direction changes depending on the case considered. Results also show that perturbations in temperature field lead to larger error than perturbing the zonal wind. Finally, the increment of moisture did not produce significant changes in the distribution or intensity of the errors in the real case. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society. Fil:Blázquez, J. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Pessacg, N.L. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Gonzalez, P.L.M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v20_n4_p447_Blazquez
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Cyclone
Error growth
Initial conditions
Perturbations
Southeastern South America
WRF model
spellingShingle Cyclone
Error growth
Initial conditions
Perturbations
Southeastern South America
WRF model
Blázquez, J.
Pessacg, N.L.
Gonzalez, P.L.M.
Simulation of a baroclinic wave with the WRF regional model: Sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment
topic_facet Cyclone
Error growth
Initial conditions
Perturbations
Southeastern South America
WRF model
description A sensitivity study to perturbations in the initial conditions in a simulated evolution of a baroclinic wave using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model is discussed in this paper. With the goal of analysing the impacts of these perturbations in the context of weather forecast and also with the aim of exploring the presence of preferred directions of growth in the errors, two cases were analysed: an ideal experiment using a case study available from the WRF set-up and a simulation of a real evolution of a mid-latitude cyclone over Southeastern South America (SESA) and the Atlantic Ocean. In the ideal experiment two spatial structures were considered for the perturbations, random and sinusoidal noise, while for the real experiment only sinusoidal structures were considered. These perturbations were then applied to the initial conditions of temperature and zonal wind. Additionally, simulations with an increment in atmospheric moisture were performed for the real experiment. It was found in both real and ideal cases that the temperature errors tend to organize in a preferable direction of growth, although this direction changes depending on the case considered. Results also show that perturbations in temperature field lead to larger error than perturbing the zonal wind. Finally, the increment of moisture did not produce significant changes in the distribution or intensity of the errors in the real case. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.
format JOUR
author Blázquez, J.
Pessacg, N.L.
Gonzalez, P.L.M.
author_facet Blázquez, J.
Pessacg, N.L.
Gonzalez, P.L.M.
author_sort Blázquez, J.
title Simulation of a baroclinic wave with the WRF regional model: Sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment
title_short Simulation of a baroclinic wave with the WRF regional model: Sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment
title_full Simulation of a baroclinic wave with the WRF regional model: Sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment
title_fullStr Simulation of a baroclinic wave with the WRF regional model: Sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment
title_full_unstemmed Simulation of a baroclinic wave with the WRF regional model: Sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment
title_sort simulation of a baroclinic wave with the wrf regional model: sensitivity to the initial conditions in an ideal and a real experiment
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v20_n4_p447_Blazquez
work_keys_str_mv AT blazquezj simulationofabaroclinicwavewiththewrfregionalmodelsensitivitytotheinitialconditionsinanidealandarealexperiment
AT pessacgnl simulationofabaroclinicwavewiththewrfregionalmodelsensitivitytotheinitialconditionsinanidealandarealexperiment
AT gonzalezplm simulationofabaroclinicwavewiththewrfregionalmodelsensitivitytotheinitialconditionsinanidealandarealexperiment
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