Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble

In this paper we analyse the joint distribution of extreme temperature and heavy precipitation events in southern South America during 1961-2000, and the predominant atmospheric circulation associated with the occurrence of compound extreme events. We show that the probability of occurrence of inten...

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Autores principales: Tencer, B., Bettolli, M.L., Rusticucci, M.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
Atmospheric circulation
Compound extremes
Extreme temperature
Heavy precipitation
Regional climate models
advection
atmospheric circulation
climate modeling
cold front
ensemble forecasting
extreme event
high temperature
precipitation (climatology)
probability
regional climate
spatial distribution
trough
Argentina
South America
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p183_Tencer
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p183_Tencer
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spelling todo:paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p183_Tencer2023-10-03T15:48:40Z Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble Tencer, B. Bettolli, M.L. Rusticucci, M. Atmospheric circulation Compound extremes Extreme temperature Heavy precipitation Regional climate models advection atmospheric circulation climate modeling cold front ensemble forecasting extreme event high temperature precipitation (climatology) probability regional climate spatial distribution trough Argentina South America In this paper we analyse the joint distribution of extreme temperature and heavy precipitation events in southern South America during 1961-2000, and the predominant atmospheric circulation associated with the occurrence of compound extreme events. We show that the probability of occurrence of intense precipitation (daily rainfall higher than the 75th percentile) significantly increases during or following a warm night (minimum temperature higher than the 90th percentile), but decreases during a cold night (minimum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) during the warm season. Heavy precipitation events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm days (maximum temperature higher than the 90th percentile) or following such an event in eastern Argentina, but they rarely occur before. In contrast, cold days (maximum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) happen more often after an intense rain. Compound events are usually associated with 1 or 2 typical circulation patterns in each subregion. For example, warm days and heavy precipitation tends to occur more often when a trough over the Pacific Ocean and a cold front over the continent lead to warm and wet air advected to the east of the region of study. We also analysed the skill of 7 regional climate models from the CLARIS LPB project to simulate the statistical relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes in 1990-2000. Overall, models were able to simulate an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during warm nights and cold days, and an inhibition of precipitation during cold nights. However, models tend to fail to capture the spatial distribution of the compound extreme events in southeastern South America. © Inter-Research 2016. Fil:Tencer, B. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Bettolli, M.L. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Rusticucci, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p183_Tencer
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Atmospheric circulation
Compound extremes
Extreme temperature
Heavy precipitation
Regional climate models
advection
atmospheric circulation
climate modeling
cold front
ensemble forecasting
extreme event
high temperature
precipitation (climatology)
probability
regional climate
spatial distribution
trough
Argentina
South America
spellingShingle Atmospheric circulation
Compound extremes
Extreme temperature
Heavy precipitation
Regional climate models
advection
atmospheric circulation
climate modeling
cold front
ensemble forecasting
extreme event
high temperature
precipitation (climatology)
probability
regional climate
spatial distribution
trough
Argentina
South America
Tencer, B.
Bettolli, M.L.
Rusticucci, M.
Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
topic_facet Atmospheric circulation
Compound extremes
Extreme temperature
Heavy precipitation
Regional climate models
advection
atmospheric circulation
climate modeling
cold front
ensemble forecasting
extreme event
high temperature
precipitation (climatology)
probability
regional climate
spatial distribution
trough
Argentina
South America
description In this paper we analyse the joint distribution of extreme temperature and heavy precipitation events in southern South America during 1961-2000, and the predominant atmospheric circulation associated with the occurrence of compound extreme events. We show that the probability of occurrence of intense precipitation (daily rainfall higher than the 75th percentile) significantly increases during or following a warm night (minimum temperature higher than the 90th percentile), but decreases during a cold night (minimum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) during the warm season. Heavy precipitation events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm days (maximum temperature higher than the 90th percentile) or following such an event in eastern Argentina, but they rarely occur before. In contrast, cold days (maximum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) happen more often after an intense rain. Compound events are usually associated with 1 or 2 typical circulation patterns in each subregion. For example, warm days and heavy precipitation tends to occur more often when a trough over the Pacific Ocean and a cold front over the continent lead to warm and wet air advected to the east of the region of study. We also analysed the skill of 7 regional climate models from the CLARIS LPB project to simulate the statistical relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes in 1990-2000. Overall, models were able to simulate an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during warm nights and cold days, and an inhibition of precipitation during cold nights. However, models tend to fail to capture the spatial distribution of the compound extreme events in southeastern South America. © Inter-Research 2016.
format JOUR
author Tencer, B.
Bettolli, M.L.
Rusticucci, M.
author_facet Tencer, B.
Bettolli, M.L.
Rusticucci, M.
author_sort Tencer, B.
title Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_short Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_full Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_fullStr Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_full_unstemmed Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_sort compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern south america: associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-rcm ensemble
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p183_Tencer
work_keys_str_mv AT tencerb compoundtemperatureandprecipitationextremeeventsinsouthernsouthamericaassociatedatmosphericcirculationandsimulationsbyamultircmensemble
AT bettolliml compoundtemperatureandprecipitationextremeeventsinsouthernsouthamericaassociatedatmosphericcirculationandsimulationsbyamultircmensemble
AT rusticuccim compoundtemperatureandprecipitationextremeeventsinsouthernsouthamericaassociatedatmosphericcirculationandsimulationsbyamultircmensemble
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