Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models

This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no sign...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Blázquez, J., Nuñez, M.N.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
CMIP3 models
CMIP5 models
Projections
South America
Uncertainties
climate modeling
climate prediction
precipitation (climatology)
reliability analysis
signal-to-noise ratio
uncertainty analysis
weather forecasting
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v41_n3-4_p1039_Blazquez
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_09307575_v41_n3-4_p1039_Blazquez
record_format dspace
spelling todo:paper_09307575_v41_n3-4_p1039_Blazquez2023-10-03T15:47:57Z Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models Blázquez, J. Nuñez, M.N. CMIP3 models CMIP5 models Projections South America Uncertainties climate modeling climate prediction precipitation (climatology) reliability analysis signal-to-noise ratio uncertainty analysis weather forecasting Argentina Brazil Paraguay This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Fil:Blázquez, J. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Nuñez, M.N. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v41_n3-4_p1039_Blazquez
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic CMIP3 models
CMIP5 models
Projections
South America
Uncertainties
climate modeling
climate prediction
precipitation (climatology)
reliability analysis
signal-to-noise ratio
uncertainty analysis
weather forecasting
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
spellingShingle CMIP3 models
CMIP5 models
Projections
South America
Uncertainties
climate modeling
climate prediction
precipitation (climatology)
reliability analysis
signal-to-noise ratio
uncertainty analysis
weather forecasting
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Blázquez, J.
Nuñez, M.N.
Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
topic_facet CMIP3 models
CMIP5 models
Projections
South America
Uncertainties
climate modeling
climate prediction
precipitation (climatology)
reliability analysis
signal-to-noise ratio
uncertainty analysis
weather forecasting
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
description This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.
format JOUR
author Blázquez, J.
Nuñez, M.N.
author_facet Blázquez, J.
Nuñez, M.N.
author_sort Blázquez, J.
title Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
title_short Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
title_full Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
title_fullStr Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
title_sort analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for south america: comparison of wcrp-cmip3 and wcrp-cmip5 models
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v41_n3-4_p1039_Blazquez
work_keys_str_mv AT blazquezj analysisofuncertaintiesinfutureclimateprojectionsforsouthamericacomparisonofwcrpcmip3andwcrpcmip5models
AT nunezmn analysisofuncertaintiesinfutureclimateprojectionsforsouthamericacomparisonofwcrpcmip3andwcrpcmip5models
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