Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

This article addresses the regional impacts of climate change on precipitation and meteorological drought over Southern South America (SSA) through a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble based on 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced under two different greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and...

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Autores principales:	Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A.
Formato:	JOUR
Materias:	Climate change CMIP5 models Meteorological drought Southern South America Standardized precipitation index Drought Greenhouse gases Precipitation (meteorology) Stream flow Gas concentration General circulation model Global precipitation Multi-model ensemble Regional characteristics Southern south america Climate models atmospheric general circulation model climate change climate modeling drought ensemble forecasting precipitation assessment South America
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08998418_v36_n2_p974_Penalba
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	todo:paper_08998418_v36_n2_p974_Penalba
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spelling	todo:paper_08998418_v36_n2_p974_Penalba2023-10-03T15:44:25Z Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble Penalba, O.C. Rivera, J.A. Climate change CMIP5 models Meteorological drought Southern South America Standardized precipitation index Climate change Drought Greenhouse gases Precipitation (meteorology) Stream flow Gas concentration General circulation model Global precipitation Meteorological drought Multi-model ensemble Regional characteristics Southern south america Standardized precipitation index Climate models atmospheric general circulation model climate change climate modeling drought ensemble forecasting precipitation assessment South America This article addresses the regional impacts of climate change on precipitation and meteorological drought over Southern South America (SSA) through a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble based on 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced under two different greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). An assessment of the biases in the representation of the precipitation annual cycle was performed over the 1979-2008 period over five regions within SSA, based on a comparison between the GCMs precipitation outputs with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dataset. The multi-model ensemble well reproduces the shape of the annual cycle of precipitation over most of SSA, although the monthly totals were overestimated (underestimated) over the North-West and South (North-East and Central-East) regions. Changes in precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics were identified by the difference for early (2011-2040) and late (2071-2100) 21st century values with respect to the 1979-2008 baseline, using the standardized precipitation index as a short- and long-term drought indicator. Future climate conditions are expected to modify the regional characteristics of meteorological droughts over SSA, but the range of uncertainty in the expected changes is high. A significant increase in the number of drought events in all the regions for most of the 21st century sub-periods is projected for the multi-model ensemble. The mean duration of drought events will be shorter, with no significant changes in the severity of droughts and the occurrence of multi-decadal changes in the number of critical dry months is likely, although the significance in the changes depends on the region, future time horizon and greenhouse gas concentration pathways. These results overlap with a projected increase in precipitation over most of the regions, which has a strong seasonality and, therefore, will have some implications upon the future meteorological drought developments and the agricultural and hydrological practices in SSA. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. Fil:Penalba, O.C. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08998418_v36_n2_p974_Penalba
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Climate change CMIP5 models Meteorological drought Southern South America Standardized precipitation index Climate change Drought Greenhouse gases Precipitation (meteorology) Stream flow Gas concentration General circulation model Global precipitation Meteorological drought Multi-model ensemble Regional characteristics Southern south america Standardized precipitation index Climate models atmospheric general circulation model climate change climate modeling drought ensemble forecasting precipitation assessment South America
spellingShingle	Climate change CMIP5 models Meteorological drought Southern South America Standardized precipitation index Climate change Drought Greenhouse gases Precipitation (meteorology) Stream flow Gas concentration General circulation model Global precipitation Meteorological drought Multi-model ensemble Regional characteristics Southern south america Standardized precipitation index Climate models atmospheric general circulation model climate change climate modeling drought ensemble forecasting precipitation assessment South America Penalba, O.C. Rivera, J.A. Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
topic_facet	Climate change CMIP5 models Meteorological drought Southern South America Standardized precipitation index Climate change Drought Greenhouse gases Precipitation (meteorology) Stream flow Gas concentration General circulation model Global precipitation Meteorological drought Multi-model ensemble Regional characteristics Southern south america Standardized precipitation index Climate models atmospheric general circulation model climate change climate modeling drought ensemble forecasting precipitation assessment South America
description	This article addresses the regional impacts of climate change on precipitation and meteorological drought over Southern South America (SSA) through a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble based on 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced under two different greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). An assessment of the biases in the representation of the precipitation annual cycle was performed over the 1979-2008 period over five regions within SSA, based on a comparison between the GCMs precipitation outputs with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dataset. The multi-model ensemble well reproduces the shape of the annual cycle of precipitation over most of SSA, although the monthly totals were overestimated (underestimated) over the North-West and South (North-East and Central-East) regions. Changes in precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics were identified by the difference for early (2011-2040) and late (2071-2100) 21st century values with respect to the 1979-2008 baseline, using the standardized precipitation index as a short- and long-term drought indicator. Future climate conditions are expected to modify the regional characteristics of meteorological droughts over SSA, but the range of uncertainty in the expected changes is high. A significant increase in the number of drought events in all the regions for most of the 21st century sub-periods is projected for the multi-model ensemble. The mean duration of drought events will be shorter, with no significant changes in the severity of droughts and the occurrence of multi-decadal changes in the number of critical dry months is likely, although the significance in the changes depends on the region, future time horizon and greenhouse gas concentration pathways. These results overlap with a projected increase in precipitation over most of the regions, which has a strong seasonality and, therefore, will have some implications upon the future meteorological drought developments and the agricultural and hydrological practices in SSA. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.
format	JOUR
author	Penalba, O.C. Rivera, J.A.
author_facet	Penalba, O.C. Rivera, J.A.
author_sort	Penalba, O.C.
title	Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
title_short	Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
title_full	Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
title_fullStr	Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
title_full_unstemmed	Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
title_sort	regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over southern south america projected by a cmip5 multi-model ensemble
url	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08998418_v36_n2_p974_Penalba
work_keys_str_mv	AT penalbaoc regionalaspectsoffutureprecipitationandmeteorologicaldroughtcharacteristicsoversouthernsouthamericaprojectedbyacmip5multimodelensemble AT riveraja regionalaspectsoffutureprecipitationandmeteorologicaldroughtcharacteristicsoversouthernsouthamericaprojectedbyacmip5multimodelensemble
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Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

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