Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate

The dynamical basis for seasonal to decadal climate predictions and predictability over South America is reviewed. It is shown that, while global tropical SSTs affect both predictability and predictions over South America, the current lack of SST predictability over the tropical Atlantic represents...

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Autores principales:	Nobre, P., Marengo, J.A., Cavalcanti, I.F.A., Obregon, G., Barros, V., Camilloni, I., Campos, N., Ferreira, A.G.
Formato:	JOUR
Materias:	Atmospheric temperature Climate change Weather forecasting Climate predictions Climate variations Decadal climate Seasonal climate Climatology atmosphere-ocean coupling climate change climate modeling climate prediction decadal variation global change sea surface temperature seasonal variation Atlantic Ocean Atlantic Ocean (South) Brazil South America
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08948755_v19_n23_p5988_Nobre
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	todo:paper_08948755_v19_n23_p5988_Nobre
record_format	dspace
spelling	todo:paper_08948755_v19_n23_p5988_Nobre2023-10-03T15:42:10Z Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate Nobre, P. Marengo, J.A. Cavalcanti, I.F.A. Obregon, G. Barros, V. Camilloni, I. Campos, N. Ferreira, A.G. Atmospheric temperature Climate change Weather forecasting Climate predictions Climate variations Decadal climate Seasonal climate Climatology atmosphere-ocean coupling climate change climate modeling climate prediction decadal variation global change sea surface temperature seasonal variation Atlantic Ocean Atlantic Ocean (South) Brazil South America The dynamical basis for seasonal to decadal climate predictions and predictability over South America is reviewed. It is shown that, while global tropical SSTs affect both predictability and predictions over South America, the current lack of SST predictability over the tropical Atlantic represents a limiting factor to seasonal climate predictions over some parts of the continent. The model's skill varies with the continental region: the highest skill is found in the "Nordeste" region and the lowest skill over southeastern Brazil. It is also suggested that current two-tier approaches to predict seasonal climate variations might represent a major limitation to forecast coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena like the South Atlantic convergence zone. Also discussed are the possible effects of global climate change on regional predictability of seasonal climate. © 2006 American Meteorological Society. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08948755_v19_n23_p5988_Nobre
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Atmospheric temperature Climate change Weather forecasting Climate predictions Climate variations Decadal climate Seasonal climate Climatology atmosphere-ocean coupling climate change climate modeling climate prediction decadal variation global change sea surface temperature seasonal variation Atlantic Ocean Atlantic Ocean (South) Brazil South America
spellingShingle	Atmospheric temperature Climate change Weather forecasting Climate predictions Climate variations Decadal climate Seasonal climate Climatology atmosphere-ocean coupling climate change climate modeling climate prediction decadal variation global change sea surface temperature seasonal variation Atlantic Ocean Atlantic Ocean (South) Brazil South America Nobre, P. Marengo, J.A. Cavalcanti, I.F.A. Obregon, G. Barros, V. Camilloni, I. Campos, N. Ferreira, A.G. Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate
topic_facet	Atmospheric temperature Climate change Weather forecasting Climate predictions Climate variations Decadal climate Seasonal climate Climatology atmosphere-ocean coupling climate change climate modeling climate prediction decadal variation global change sea surface temperature seasonal variation Atlantic Ocean Atlantic Ocean (South) Brazil South America
description	The dynamical basis for seasonal to decadal climate predictions and predictability over South America is reviewed. It is shown that, while global tropical SSTs affect both predictability and predictions over South America, the current lack of SST predictability over the tropical Atlantic represents a limiting factor to seasonal climate predictions over some parts of the continent. The model's skill varies with the continental region: the highest skill is found in the "Nordeste" region and the lowest skill over southeastern Brazil. It is also suggested that current two-tier approaches to predict seasonal climate variations might represent a major limitation to forecast coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena like the South Atlantic convergence zone. Also discussed are the possible effects of global climate change on regional predictability of seasonal climate. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.
format	JOUR
author	Nobre, P. Marengo, J.A. Cavalcanti, I.F.A. Obregon, G. Barros, V. Camilloni, I. Campos, N. Ferreira, A.G.
author_facet	Nobre, P. Marengo, J.A. Cavalcanti, I.F.A. Obregon, G. Barros, V. Camilloni, I. Campos, N. Ferreira, A.G.
author_sort	Nobre, P.
title	Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate
title_short	Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate
title_full	Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate
title_fullStr	Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate
title_full_unstemmed	Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate
title_sort	seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of south american climate
url	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08948755_v19_n23_p5988_Nobre
work_keys_str_mv	AT nobrep seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityandpredictionofsouthamericanclimate AT marengoja seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityandpredictionofsouthamericanclimate AT cavalcantiifa seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityandpredictionofsouthamericanclimate AT obregong seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityandpredictionofsouthamericanclimate AT barrosv seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityandpredictionofsouthamericanclimate AT camillonii seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityandpredictionofsouthamericanclimate AT camposn seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityandpredictionofsouthamericanclimate AT ferreiraag seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityandpredictionofsouthamericanclimate
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Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate

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