Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly af...

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Autores principales: Barmak, D.H., Dorso, C.O., Otero, M.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
Foci coalescence
Human mobility
Stochastic modelling
Vector-borne diseases
Dynamics
Epidemiology
Stochastic systems
Temperature
Driving forces
Epidemic spreading
Human population
Low temperatures
Mobility pattern
Spatio-temporal dynamics
Vector-borne disease
Stochastic models
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
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spelling todo:paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak2023-10-03T15:33:02Z Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility Barmak, D.H. Dorso, C.O. Otero, M. Foci coalescence Human mobility Stochastic modelling Vector-borne diseases Dynamics Epidemiology Stochastic systems Temperature Driving forces Epidemic spreading Human mobility Human population Low temperatures Mobility pattern Spatio-temporal dynamics Vector-borne disease Stochastic models We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Fil:Dorso, C.O. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Otero, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Foci coalescence
Human mobility
Stochastic modelling
Vector-borne diseases
Dynamics
Epidemiology
Stochastic systems
Temperature
Driving forces
Epidemic spreading
Human mobility
Human population
Low temperatures
Mobility pattern
Spatio-temporal dynamics
Vector-borne disease
Stochastic models
spellingShingle Foci coalescence
Human mobility
Stochastic modelling
Vector-borne diseases
Dynamics
Epidemiology
Stochastic systems
Temperature
Driving forces
Epidemic spreading
Human mobility
Human population
Low temperatures
Mobility pattern
Spatio-temporal dynamics
Vector-borne disease
Stochastic models
Barmak, D.H.
Dorso, C.O.
Otero, M.
Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
topic_facet Foci coalescence
Human mobility
Stochastic modelling
Vector-borne diseases
Dynamics
Epidemiology
Stochastic systems
Temperature
Driving forces
Epidemic spreading
Human mobility
Human population
Low temperatures
Mobility pattern
Spatio-temporal dynamics
Vector-borne disease
Stochastic models
description We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
format JOUR
author Barmak, D.H.
Dorso, C.O.
Otero, M.
author_facet Barmak, D.H.
Dorso, C.O.
Otero, M.
author_sort Barmak, D.H.
title Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_short Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_full Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_fullStr Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_full_unstemmed Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_sort modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak
work_keys_str_mv AT barmakdh modellingdengueepidemicspreadingwithhumanmobility
AT dorsoco modellingdengueepidemicspreadingwithhumanmobility
AT oterom modellingdengueepidemicspreadingwithhumanmobility
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