Evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the Pampas region, Argentina
One of the available tools for monitoring soil dryness and excessive wetness is the Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI). Three years ago, a methodology for monitoring and monthly statistical prediction of the SPI in the Pampas region of Argentina was put into operation. The aim of this paper is to...
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| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03276244_v27_n1_p11_Serio |
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todo:paper_03276244_v27_n1_p11_Serio2023-10-03T15:24:56Z Evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the Pampas region, Argentina Serio, L. Martin, P. Murphy, G. Drought Forecast Pampas region Probability Wetness excess One of the available tools for monitoring soil dryness and excessive wetness is the Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI). Three years ago, a methodology for monitoring and monthly statistical prediction of the SPI in the Pampas region of Argentina was put into operation. The aim of this paper is to evaluate these forecasts. First, the SPI calculation methodology is described, and so are those aspects taken into account in order to issue the forecasts. Then, some results of the evaluation by means of contingence tables are shown. Considering the whole region, the percentage of success for the predicted SPI category was 78 % and the contingence coefficient was 0.65. Fil:Martin, P. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03276244_v27_n1_p11_Serio |
| institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| institution_str |
I-28 |
| repository_str |
R-134 |
| collection |
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
| topic |
Drought Forecast Pampas region Probability Wetness excess |
| spellingShingle |
Drought Forecast Pampas region Probability Wetness excess Serio, L. Martin, P. Murphy, G. Evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the Pampas region, Argentina |
| topic_facet |
Drought Forecast Pampas region Probability Wetness excess |
| description |
One of the available tools for monitoring soil dryness and excessive wetness is the Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI). Three years ago, a methodology for monitoring and monthly statistical prediction of the SPI in the Pampas region of Argentina was put into operation. The aim of this paper is to evaluate these forecasts. First, the SPI calculation methodology is described, and so are those aspects taken into account in order to issue the forecasts. Then, some results of the evaluation by means of contingence tables are shown. Considering the whole region, the percentage of success for the predicted SPI category was 78 % and the contingence coefficient was 0.65. |
| format |
JOUR |
| author |
Serio, L. Martin, P. Murphy, G. |
| author_facet |
Serio, L. Martin, P. Murphy, G. |
| author_sort |
Serio, L. |
| title |
Evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the Pampas region, Argentina |
| title_short |
Evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the Pampas region, Argentina |
| title_full |
Evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the Pampas region, Argentina |
| title_fullStr |
Evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the Pampas region, Argentina |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the Pampas region, Argentina |
| title_sort |
evaluation of a statistical forecast methodology for soil moisture conditions in the pampas region, argentina |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03276244_v27_n1_p11_Serio |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT seriol evaluationofastatisticalforecastmethodologyforsoilmoistureconditionsinthepampasregionargentina AT martinp evaluationofastatisticalforecastmethodologyforsoilmoistureconditionsinthepampasregionargentina AT murphyg evaluationofastatisticalforecastmethodologyforsoilmoistureconditionsinthepampasregionargentina |
| _version_ |
1782024117192491008 |