The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions

The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)-Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for th...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Alessandri, A., Borrelli, A., Masina, S., Cherchi, A., Gualdi, S., Navarra, A., Di Pietro, P., Carril, A.F.
Formato:	JOUR
Materias:	Boreal winters Control simulation Data assimilation Ensemble forecasts Extratropics Global scale Initial conditions Optimal interpolation Reduced order Sea surface temperatures Seasonal prediction Subsurface profile Surface climate Temperature anomaly Atmospheric temperature Climatology Data processing Nickel compounds Oceanography Tropics Forecasting accuracy assessment data assimilation El Nino ensemble forecasting extratropical environment global perspective marine atmosphere prediction salinity sea surface temperature seasonal variation temperature anomaly tropical meteorology weather forecasting winter Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00270644_v138_n7_p2930_Alessandri
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	todo:paper_00270644_v138_n7_p2930_Alessandri
record_format	dspace
spelling	todo:paper_00270644_v138_n7_p2930_Alessandri2023-10-03T14:37:29Z The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions Alessandri, A. Borrelli, A. Masina, S. Cherchi, A. Gualdi, S. Navarra, A. Di Pietro, P. Carril, A.F. Boreal winters Control simulation Data assimilation Ensemble forecasts Extratropics Global scale Initial conditions Optimal interpolation Reduced order Sea surface temperatures Seasonal prediction Subsurface profile Surface climate Temperature anomaly Atmospheric temperature Climatology Data processing Nickel compounds Oceanography Tropics Forecasting accuracy assessment data assimilation El Nino ensemble forecasting extratropical environment global perspective marine atmosphere prediction salinity sea surface temperature seasonal variation temperature anomaly tropical meteorology weather forecasting winter Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean (Tropical) The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)-Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991-2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without as-similation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Niño, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results pre-sented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, sig-nificant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics. © 2010 American Meteorological Society. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00270644_v138_n7_p2930_Alessandri
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Boreal winters Control simulation Data assimilation Ensemble forecasts Extratropics Global scale Initial conditions Optimal interpolation Reduced order Sea surface temperatures Seasonal prediction Subsurface profile Surface climate Temperature anomaly Atmospheric temperature Climatology Data processing Nickel compounds Oceanography Tropics Forecasting accuracy assessment data assimilation El Nino ensemble forecasting extratropical environment global perspective marine atmosphere prediction salinity sea surface temperature seasonal variation temperature anomaly tropical meteorology weather forecasting winter Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
spellingShingle	Boreal winters Control simulation Data assimilation Ensemble forecasts Extratropics Global scale Initial conditions Optimal interpolation Reduced order Sea surface temperatures Seasonal prediction Subsurface profile Surface climate Temperature anomaly Atmospheric temperature Climatology Data processing Nickel compounds Oceanography Tropics Forecasting accuracy assessment data assimilation El Nino ensemble forecasting extratropical environment global perspective marine atmosphere prediction salinity sea surface temperature seasonal variation temperature anomaly tropical meteorology weather forecasting winter Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean (Tropical) Alessandri, A. Borrelli, A. Masina, S. Cherchi, A. Gualdi, S. Navarra, A. Di Pietro, P. Carril, A.F. The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions
topic_facet	Boreal winters Control simulation Data assimilation Ensemble forecasts Extratropics Global scale Initial conditions Optimal interpolation Reduced order Sea surface temperatures Seasonal prediction Subsurface profile Surface climate Temperature anomaly Atmospheric temperature Climatology Data processing Nickel compounds Oceanography Tropics Forecasting accuracy assessment data assimilation El Nino ensemble forecasting extratropical environment global perspective marine atmosphere prediction salinity sea surface temperature seasonal variation temperature anomaly tropical meteorology weather forecasting winter Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
description	The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)-Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991-2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without as-similation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Niño, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results pre-sented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, sig-nificant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.
format	JOUR
author	Alessandri, A. Borrelli, A. Masina, S. Cherchi, A. Gualdi, S. Navarra, A. Di Pietro, P. Carril, A.F.
author_facet	Alessandri, A. Borrelli, A. Masina, S. Cherchi, A. Gualdi, S. Navarra, A. Di Pietro, P. Carril, A.F.
author_sort	Alessandri, A.
title	The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions
title_short	The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions
title_full	The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions
title_fullStr	The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions
title_full_unstemmed	The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions
title_sort	ingv-cmcc seasonal prediction system: improved ocean initial conditions
url	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00270644_v138_n7_p2930_Alessandri
work_keys_str_mv	AT alessandria theingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT borrellia theingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT masinas theingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT cherchia theingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT gualdis theingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT navarraa theingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT dipietrop theingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT carrilaf theingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT alessandria ingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT borrellia ingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT masinas ingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT cherchia ingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT gualdis ingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT navarraa ingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT dipietrop ingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions AT carrilaf ingvcmccseasonalpredictionsystemimprovedoceaninitialconditions
_version_	1807314528203964416

The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions

Ejemplares similares