Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America

A comparison of performance of two versions of the Eta/CPTEC model is presented. The new version is an update of an earlier operational one and includes representation of soil and vegetation types. The soil/vegetation model contains two underground layers and a canopy layer. Evaluation was carried o...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Seluchi, M.E., Chou, S.C.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
Meteorology
Performance
Regional modeling
South America
Surface processes
weather forecasting
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00167169_v40_n3_p219_Seluchi
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
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spelling todo:paper_00167169_v40_n3_p219_Seluchi2023-10-03T14:14:39Z Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America Seluchi, M.E. Chou, S.C. Meteorology Performance Regional modeling South America Surface processes weather forecasting South America A comparison of performance of two versions of the Eta/CPTEC model is presented. The new version is an update of an earlier operational one and includes representation of soil and vegetation types. The soil/vegetation model contains two underground layers and a canopy layer. Evaluation was carried out by comparing the mean and root mean square errors of several variables for an ensemble of 15 meteorological situations, using the NCEP analyses, upper air soundings and precipitation data over South America. Precipitation forecasts were evaluated by the equitable threat score (ETS) and the bias score (BIAS). The mean errors from both versions show similarities during the first 24 hours of forecast, but surface temperature is more accurately predicted by the updated model. After 48 hours, temperature and humidity forecasts show better skill in the new version too. Over subtropical South America differences are more evident in temperature and humidity, less so for geopotential heights and practically nonexistent for horizontal winds. The precipitation forecasts for the updated version have equitable threat scores slightly higher and similar bias scores during the first 24 hours. After 48 hours this version tends to overestimate the rainfall, while its spatial distribution remains unaffected. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00167169_v40_n3_p219_Seluchi
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Meteorology
Performance
Regional modeling
South America
Surface processes
weather forecasting
South America
spellingShingle Meteorology
Performance
Regional modeling
South America
Surface processes
weather forecasting
South America
Seluchi, M.E.
Chou, S.C.
Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America
topic_facet Meteorology
Performance
Regional modeling
South America
Surface processes
weather forecasting
South America
description A comparison of performance of two versions of the Eta/CPTEC model is presented. The new version is an update of an earlier operational one and includes representation of soil and vegetation types. The soil/vegetation model contains two underground layers and a canopy layer. Evaluation was carried out by comparing the mean and root mean square errors of several variables for an ensemble of 15 meteorological situations, using the NCEP analyses, upper air soundings and precipitation data over South America. Precipitation forecasts were evaluated by the equitable threat score (ETS) and the bias score (BIAS). The mean errors from both versions show similarities during the first 24 hours of forecast, but surface temperature is more accurately predicted by the updated model. After 48 hours, temperature and humidity forecasts show better skill in the new version too. Over subtropical South America differences are more evident in temperature and humidity, less so for geopotential heights and practically nonexistent for horizontal winds. The precipitation forecasts for the updated version have equitable threat scores slightly higher and similar bias scores during the first 24 hours. After 48 hours this version tends to overestimate the rainfall, while its spatial distribution remains unaffected.
format JOUR
author Seluchi, M.E.
Chou, S.C.
author_facet Seluchi, M.E.
Chou, S.C.
author_sort Seluchi, M.E.
title Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America
title_short Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America
title_full Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America
title_fullStr Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America
title_sort evaluation of two eta model versions for weather forecast over south america
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00167169_v40_n3_p219_Seluchi
work_keys_str_mv AT seluchime evaluationoftwoetamodelversionsforweatherforecastoversouthamerica
AT chousc evaluationoftwoetamodelversionsforweatherforecastoversouthamerica
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