Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts

A mesoscale boundary-layer model (BLM) is used for running 12-h low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region. Several experiments are performed with different boundary conditions that include operational forecasts of the Eta/CPTEC model, local observations, as well as a combination of both...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Sraibman, L., Berri, G.J.
Formato:	JOUR
Materias:	Boundary-layer model Low-level wind forecast Model coupling Atmospheric temperature Boundary layer flow Boundary layers Errors Lanthanum Rivers Surface properties Wind 850-hpa Accuracy measures Different boundary conditions Hit rates Horizontal winds Meso-scale Operational forecasts Root-mean-squared Surface temperatures Surface winds Weather stations Wind directions Wind forecasts Weather forecasting accuracy assessment boundary condition boundary layer coupling numerical model surface temperature surface wind weather forecasting weather station wind direction La Plata Basin South America
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00068314_v130_n3_p407_Sraibman
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	todo:paper_00068314_v130_n3_p407_Sraibman
record_format	dspace
spelling	todo:paper_00068314_v130_n3_p407_Sraibman2023-10-03T14:05:16Z Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts Sraibman, L. Berri, G.J. Boundary-layer model Low-level wind forecast Model coupling Atmospheric temperature Boundary layer flow Boundary layers Errors Lanthanum Rivers Surface properties Wind 850-hpa Accuracy measures Boundary-layer model Different boundary conditions Hit rates Horizontal winds Low-level wind forecast Meso-scale Model coupling Operational forecasts Root-mean-squared Surface temperatures Surface winds Weather stations Wind directions Wind forecasts Weather forecasting accuracy assessment boundary condition boundary layer coupling numerical model surface temperature surface wind weather forecasting weather station wind direction La Plata Basin South America A mesoscale boundary-layer model (BLM) is used for running 12-h low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region. Several experiments are performed with different boundary conditions that include operational forecasts of the Eta/CPTEC model, local observations, as well as a combination of both. The BLM wind forecasts are compared to the surface wind observations of five weather stations during the period November 2003-April 2004. Two accuracy measures are used: the hit rate or percentage of cases with agreement in the wind direction sector, and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the horizontal wind components. The BLM surface wind forecasts are always more accurate, since its averaged hit rate is three times greater and its averaged RMSE is one half smaller than the Eta forecasts. Despite the large errors in the surface winds displayed by the Eta forecasts, its 850 hPa winds and surface temperature forecasts are able to drive the BLM model to obtain surface winds forecasts with smaller errors than the Eta model. An additional experiment demonstrates that the advantage of using the BLM model for forecasting low-level winds over the La Plata River region is the result of a more appropriate definition of the land-river surface temperature contrast. The particular formulation that the BLM model has for the geometry of the river coasts is fundamental for resolving the smaller scale details of the low-level local circulation. The main conclusion of the study is that operational low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region can be improved by running the BLM model forced by the Eta operational forecasts. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009. Fil:Sraibman, L. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Berri, G.J. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00068314_v130_n3_p407_Sraibman
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Boundary-layer model Low-level wind forecast Model coupling Atmospheric temperature Boundary layer flow Boundary layers Errors Lanthanum Rivers Surface properties Wind 850-hpa Accuracy measures Boundary-layer model Different boundary conditions Hit rates Horizontal winds Low-level wind forecast Meso-scale Model coupling Operational forecasts Root-mean-squared Surface temperatures Surface winds Weather stations Wind directions Wind forecasts Weather forecasting accuracy assessment boundary condition boundary layer coupling numerical model surface temperature surface wind weather forecasting weather station wind direction La Plata Basin South America
spellingShingle	Boundary-layer model Low-level wind forecast Model coupling Atmospheric temperature Boundary layer flow Boundary layers Errors Lanthanum Rivers Surface properties Wind 850-hpa Accuracy measures Boundary-layer model Different boundary conditions Hit rates Horizontal winds Low-level wind forecast Meso-scale Model coupling Operational forecasts Root-mean-squared Surface temperatures Surface winds Weather stations Wind directions Wind forecasts Weather forecasting accuracy assessment boundary condition boundary layer coupling numerical model surface temperature surface wind weather forecasting weather station wind direction La Plata Basin South America Sraibman, L. Berri, G.J. Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts
topic_facet	Boundary-layer model Low-level wind forecast Model coupling Atmospheric temperature Boundary layer flow Boundary layers Errors Lanthanum Rivers Surface properties Wind 850-hpa Accuracy measures Boundary-layer model Different boundary conditions Hit rates Horizontal winds Low-level wind forecast Meso-scale Model coupling Operational forecasts Root-mean-squared Surface temperatures Surface winds Weather stations Wind directions Wind forecasts Weather forecasting accuracy assessment boundary condition boundary layer coupling numerical model surface temperature surface wind weather forecasting weather station wind direction La Plata Basin South America
description	A mesoscale boundary-layer model (BLM) is used for running 12-h low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region. Several experiments are performed with different boundary conditions that include operational forecasts of the Eta/CPTEC model, local observations, as well as a combination of both. The BLM wind forecasts are compared to the surface wind observations of five weather stations during the period November 2003-April 2004. Two accuracy measures are used: the hit rate or percentage of cases with agreement in the wind direction sector, and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the horizontal wind components. The BLM surface wind forecasts are always more accurate, since its averaged hit rate is three times greater and its averaged RMSE is one half smaller than the Eta forecasts. Despite the large errors in the surface winds displayed by the Eta forecasts, its 850 hPa winds and surface temperature forecasts are able to drive the BLM model to obtain surface winds forecasts with smaller errors than the Eta model. An additional experiment demonstrates that the advantage of using the BLM model for forecasting low-level winds over the La Plata River region is the result of a more appropriate definition of the land-river surface temperature contrast. The particular formulation that the BLM model has for the geometry of the river coasts is fundamental for resolving the smaller scale details of the low-level local circulation. The main conclusion of the study is that operational low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region can be improved by running the BLM model forced by the Eta operational forecasts. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.
format	JOUR
author	Sraibman, L. Berri, G.J.
author_facet	Sraibman, L. Berri, G.J.
author_sort	Sraibman, L.
title	Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts
title_short	Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts
title_full	Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts
title_fullStr	Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts
title_full_unstemmed	Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts
title_sort	low-level wind forecast over the la plata river region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts
url	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00068314_v130_n3_p407_Sraibman
work_keys_str_mv	AT sraibmanl lowlevelwindforecastoverthelaplatariverregionwithamesoscaleboundarylayermodelforcedbyregionaloperationalforecasts AT berrigj lowlevelwindforecastoverthelaplatariverregionwithamesoscaleboundarylayermodelforcedbyregionaloperationalforecasts
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Low-level wind forecast over the La Plata River region with a mesoscale boundary-layer model forced by regional operational forecasts

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