Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina
Background: Dengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may als...
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2012
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| Acceso en línea: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_1476072X_v11_n_p_Carbajo http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1476072X_v11_n_p_Carbajo |
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paper:paper_1476072X_v11_n_p_Carbajo2023-06-08T16:17:59Z Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina Carbajo, Aníbal Eduardo Cardo, María Victoria Vezzani, Dario climate effect dengue fever disease transmission epidemic health risk population growth spatial distribution temperature effect Argentina Argentina article dengue disease transmission health survey heat human medical geography population growth statistical model theoretical model Argentina Dengue Geography, Medical Hot Temperature Humans Models, Statistical Models, Theoretical Population Growth Population Surveillance Background: Dengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may also be implicated. The relative contribution of geographic, demographic and climatic of variables on the occurrence of dengue cases was evaluated.Methods: According to dengue history in the country, the study was divided in two decades, a first decade corresponding to the reemergence of the disease and the second including several epidemics. Annual dengue risk was modeled by a temperature-based mechanistic model as annual days of possible transmission. The spatial distribution of dengue occurrence was modeled as a function of the output of the mechanistic model, climatic, geographic and demographic variables for both decades.Results: According to the temperature-based model dengue risk increased between the two decades, and epidemics of the last decade coincided with high annual risk. Dengue spatial occurrence was best modeled by a combination of climatic, demographic and geographic variables and province as a grouping factor. It was positively associated with days of possible transmission, human population number, population fall and distance to water bodies. When considered separately, the classification performance of demographic variables was higher than that of climatic and geographic variables.Conclusions: Temperature, though useful to estimate annual transmission risk, does not fully describe the distribution of dengue occurrence at the country scale. Indeed, when taken separately, climatic variables performed worse than geographic or demographic variables. A combination of the three types was best for this task. © 2012 Carbajo et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. Fil:Carbajo, A.E. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Cardo, M.V. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Vezzani, D. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2012 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_1476072X_v11_n_p_Carbajo http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1476072X_v11_n_p_Carbajo |
| institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| institution_str |
I-28 |
| repository_str |
R-134 |
| collection |
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
| topic |
climate effect dengue fever disease transmission epidemic health risk population growth spatial distribution temperature effect Argentina Argentina article dengue disease transmission health survey heat human medical geography population growth statistical model theoretical model Argentina Dengue Geography, Medical Hot Temperature Humans Models, Statistical Models, Theoretical Population Growth Population Surveillance |
| spellingShingle |
climate effect dengue fever disease transmission epidemic health risk population growth spatial distribution temperature effect Argentina Argentina article dengue disease transmission health survey heat human medical geography population growth statistical model theoretical model Argentina Dengue Geography, Medical Hot Temperature Humans Models, Statistical Models, Theoretical Population Growth Population Surveillance Carbajo, Aníbal Eduardo Cardo, María Victoria Vezzani, Dario Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina |
| topic_facet |
climate effect dengue fever disease transmission epidemic health risk population growth spatial distribution temperature effect Argentina Argentina article dengue disease transmission health survey heat human medical geography population growth statistical model theoretical model Argentina Dengue Geography, Medical Hot Temperature Humans Models, Statistical Models, Theoretical Population Growth Population Surveillance |
| description |
Background: Dengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may also be implicated. The relative contribution of geographic, demographic and climatic of variables on the occurrence of dengue cases was evaluated.Methods: According to dengue history in the country, the study was divided in two decades, a first decade corresponding to the reemergence of the disease and the second including several epidemics. Annual dengue risk was modeled by a temperature-based mechanistic model as annual days of possible transmission. The spatial distribution of dengue occurrence was modeled as a function of the output of the mechanistic model, climatic, geographic and demographic variables for both decades.Results: According to the temperature-based model dengue risk increased between the two decades, and epidemics of the last decade coincided with high annual risk. Dengue spatial occurrence was best modeled by a combination of climatic, demographic and geographic variables and province as a grouping factor. It was positively associated with days of possible transmission, human population number, population fall and distance to water bodies. When considered separately, the classification performance of demographic variables was higher than that of climatic and geographic variables.Conclusions: Temperature, though useful to estimate annual transmission risk, does not fully describe the distribution of dengue occurrence at the country scale. Indeed, when taken separately, climatic variables performed worse than geographic or demographic variables. A combination of the three types was best for this task. © 2012 Carbajo et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. |
| author |
Carbajo, Aníbal Eduardo Cardo, María Victoria Vezzani, Dario |
| author_facet |
Carbajo, Aníbal Eduardo Cardo, María Victoria Vezzani, Dario |
| author_sort |
Carbajo, Aníbal Eduardo |
| title |
Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina |
| title_short |
Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina |
| title_full |
Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina |
| title_fullStr |
Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina |
| title_sort |
is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? the case of argentina |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_1476072X_v11_n_p_Carbajo http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1476072X_v11_n_p_Carbajo |
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