Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS

Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under AlB scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme...

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Autores principales: Sorensson, Anna Amelia, Menendez, Claudio Guillermo, Ruscica, Romina, Alexander, Pedro M.
Publicado: 2010
Materias:
Amazon basin
Amazonia
Atmospheric model
Climate change scenarios
Down-scaling
Dry seasons
Dry spells
Dynamical downscaling
Extreme events
Extreme precipitation
Heavy precipitation
La Plata basin
Northeastern Brazil
Precipitation change
Seasonal mean
Seasonal precipitations
South America
Spring precipitation
Climate models
Drought
Climate change
atmospheric modeling
climate change
conference proceeding
downscaling
flooding
precipitation (climatology)
risk assessment
seasonal variation
spring (season)
weather forecasting
winter
Amazon Basin
Bolivia
Brazil
La Plata Basin
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson
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spelling paper:paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson2023-06-08T15:53:33Z Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS Sorensson, Anna Amelia Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Ruscica, Romina Alexander, Pedro M. Amazon basin Amazonia Atmospheric model Climate change scenarios Down-scaling Dry seasons Dry spells Dynamical downscaling Extreme events Extreme precipitation Heavy precipitation La Plata basin Northeastern Brazil Precipitation change Seasonal mean Seasonal precipitations South America Spring precipitation Climate models Drought Climate change atmospheric modeling climate change conference proceeding downscaling flooding precipitation (climatology) risk assessment seasonal variation spring (season) weather forecasting winter Amazon Basin Bolivia Brazil La Plata Basin South America Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under AlB scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme events like heavy precipitation and dry spells than on the mean seasonal precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation increases in the La Plata Basin with a factor of 1.5-2.5 during all seasons and in the northwestern part of the continent with a factor 1.5-3 in summer, while it decreases in central and northeastern Brazil during winter and spring. The maximum amount of 5-days precipitation increases by up to 50 % in La Plata Basin, indicating risks of flooding. Over central Brazil and the Bolivian lowland, where present 5-days precipitation is higher, the increases are similar in magnitude and could cause less impacts. In southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and the Amazon basin, the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases and mean winter and spring precipitation decreases, indicating a longer dry season. In the La Plata Basin, there is no clear pattern of change for the dry spell duration. © Gebrüder Borntraeger, Stuttgart 2010. Fil:Sörensson, A.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Menéndez, C.G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Ruscica, R. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Alexander, P. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2010 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Amazon basin
Amazonia
Atmospheric model
Climate change scenarios
Down-scaling
Dry seasons
Dry spells
Dynamical downscaling
Extreme events
Extreme precipitation
Heavy precipitation
La Plata basin
Northeastern Brazil
Precipitation change
Seasonal mean
Seasonal precipitations
South America
Spring precipitation
Climate models
Drought
Climate change
atmospheric modeling
climate change
conference proceeding
downscaling
flooding
precipitation (climatology)
risk assessment
seasonal variation
spring (season)
weather forecasting
winter
Amazon Basin
Bolivia
Brazil
La Plata Basin
South America
spellingShingle Amazon basin
Amazonia
Atmospheric model
Climate change scenarios
Down-scaling
Dry seasons
Dry spells
Dynamical downscaling
Extreme events
Extreme precipitation
Heavy precipitation
La Plata basin
Northeastern Brazil
Precipitation change
Seasonal mean
Seasonal precipitations
South America
Spring precipitation
Climate models
Drought
Climate change
atmospheric modeling
climate change
conference proceeding
downscaling
flooding
precipitation (climatology)
risk assessment
seasonal variation
spring (season)
weather forecasting
winter
Amazon Basin
Bolivia
Brazil
La Plata Basin
South America
Sorensson, Anna Amelia
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo
Ruscica, Romina
Alexander, Pedro M.
Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
topic_facet Amazon basin
Amazonia
Atmospheric model
Climate change scenarios
Down-scaling
Dry seasons
Dry spells
Dynamical downscaling
Extreme events
Extreme precipitation
Heavy precipitation
La Plata basin
Northeastern Brazil
Precipitation change
Seasonal mean
Seasonal precipitations
South America
Spring precipitation
Climate models
Drought
Climate change
atmospheric modeling
climate change
conference proceeding
downscaling
flooding
precipitation (climatology)
risk assessment
seasonal variation
spring (season)
weather forecasting
winter
Amazon Basin
Bolivia
Brazil
La Plata Basin
South America
description Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under AlB scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme events like heavy precipitation and dry spells than on the mean seasonal precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation increases in the La Plata Basin with a factor of 1.5-2.5 during all seasons and in the northwestern part of the continent with a factor 1.5-3 in summer, while it decreases in central and northeastern Brazil during winter and spring. The maximum amount of 5-days precipitation increases by up to 50 % in La Plata Basin, indicating risks of flooding. Over central Brazil and the Bolivian lowland, where present 5-days precipitation is higher, the increases are similar in magnitude and could cause less impacts. In southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and the Amazon basin, the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases and mean winter and spring precipitation decreases, indicating a longer dry season. In the La Plata Basin, there is no clear pattern of change for the dry spell duration. © Gebrüder Borntraeger, Stuttgart 2010.
author Sorensson, Anna Amelia
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo
Ruscica, Romina
Alexander, Pedro M.
author_facet Sorensson, Anna Amelia
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo
Ruscica, Romina
Alexander, Pedro M.
author_sort Sorensson, Anna Amelia
title Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
title_short Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
title_full Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
title_fullStr Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
title_full_unstemmed Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
title_sort projected precipitation changes in south america: a dynamical downscaling within claris
publishDate 2010
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson
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AT menendezclaudioguillermo projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris
AT ruscicaromina projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris
AT alexanderpedrom projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris
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