Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: Model performance and uncertainties

The capability of a set of 7 coordinated regional climate model simulations performed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project in reproducing the mean climate conditions over the South American continent has been evaluated. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset fo...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Solman, Silvina Alicia, Pessacg, Natalia Liz, Berbery, Ernesto Hugo
Publicado: 2013
Materias:
CORDEX
Mean climate
Regional climate models
South America
Uncertainty
air temperature
climate modeling
climate prediction
ensemble forecasting
numerical model
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
uncertainty analysis
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v41_n5-6_p1139_Solman
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v41_n5-6_p1139_Solman
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_09307575_v41_n5-6_p1139_Solman
record_format dspace
spelling paper:paper_09307575_v41_n5-6_p1139_Solman2023-06-08T15:52:43Z Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: Model performance and uncertainties Solman, Silvina Alicia Pessacg, Natalia Liz Berbery, Ernesto Hugo CORDEX Mean climate Regional climate models South America Uncertainty air temperature climate modeling climate prediction ensemble forecasting numerical model precipitation (climatology) regional climate uncertainty analysis South America The capability of a set of 7 coordinated regional climate model simulations performed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project in reproducing the mean climate conditions over the South American continent has been evaluated. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the period 1990-2008 on a grid resolution of 50 km, following the CORDEX protocol. The analysis was focused on evaluating the reliability of simulating mean precipitation and surface air temperature, which are the variables most commonly used for impact studies. Both the common features and the differences among individual models have been evaluated and compared against several observational datasets. In this study the ensemble bias and the degree of agreement among individual models have been quantified. The evaluation was focused on the seasonal means, the area-averaged annual cycles and the frequency distributions of monthly means over target sub-regions. Results show that the Regional Climate Model ensemble reproduces adequately well these features, with biases mostly within ±2 °C and ±20 % for temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, the multi-model ensemble depicts larger biases and larger uncertainty (as defined by the standard deviation of the models) over tropical regions compared with subtropical regions. Though some systematic biases were detected particularly over the La Plata Basin region, such as underestimation of rainfall during winter months and overestimation of temperature during summer months, every model shares a similar behavior and, consequently, the uncertainty in simulating current climate conditions is low. Every model is able to capture the variety in the shape of the frequency distribution for both temperature and precipitation along the South American continent. Differences among individual models and observations revealed the nature of individual model biases, showing either a shift in the distribution or an overestimation or underestimation of the range of variability. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Fil:Solman, S.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Pessacg, N.L. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Berbery, H. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2013 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v41_n5-6_p1139_Solman http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v41_n5-6_p1139_Solman
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic CORDEX
Mean climate
Regional climate models
South America
Uncertainty
air temperature
climate modeling
climate prediction
ensemble forecasting
numerical model
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
uncertainty analysis
South America
spellingShingle CORDEX
Mean climate
Regional climate models
South America
Uncertainty
air temperature
climate modeling
climate prediction
ensemble forecasting
numerical model
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
uncertainty analysis
South America
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Pessacg, Natalia Liz
Berbery, Ernesto Hugo
Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: Model performance and uncertainties
topic_facet CORDEX
Mean climate
Regional climate models
South America
Uncertainty
air temperature
climate modeling
climate prediction
ensemble forecasting
numerical model
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
uncertainty analysis
South America
description The capability of a set of 7 coordinated regional climate model simulations performed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project in reproducing the mean climate conditions over the South American continent has been evaluated. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the period 1990-2008 on a grid resolution of 50 km, following the CORDEX protocol. The analysis was focused on evaluating the reliability of simulating mean precipitation and surface air temperature, which are the variables most commonly used for impact studies. Both the common features and the differences among individual models have been evaluated and compared against several observational datasets. In this study the ensemble bias and the degree of agreement among individual models have been quantified. The evaluation was focused on the seasonal means, the area-averaged annual cycles and the frequency distributions of monthly means over target sub-regions. Results show that the Regional Climate Model ensemble reproduces adequately well these features, with biases mostly within ±2 °C and ±20 % for temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, the multi-model ensemble depicts larger biases and larger uncertainty (as defined by the standard deviation of the models) over tropical regions compared with subtropical regions. Though some systematic biases were detected particularly over the La Plata Basin region, such as underestimation of rainfall during winter months and overestimation of temperature during summer months, every model shares a similar behavior and, consequently, the uncertainty in simulating current climate conditions is low. Every model is able to capture the variety in the shape of the frequency distribution for both temperature and precipitation along the South American continent. Differences among individual models and observations revealed the nature of individual model biases, showing either a shift in the distribution or an overestimation or underestimation of the range of variability. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
author Solman, Silvina Alicia
Pessacg, Natalia Liz
Berbery, Ernesto Hugo
author_facet Solman, Silvina Alicia
Pessacg, Natalia Liz
Berbery, Ernesto Hugo
author_sort Solman, Silvina Alicia
title Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: Model performance and uncertainties
title_short Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: Model performance and uncertainties
title_full Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: Model performance and uncertainties
title_fullStr Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: Model performance and uncertainties
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: Model performance and uncertainties
title_sort evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over south america driven by the era-interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties
publishDate 2013
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v41_n5-6_p1139_Solman
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v41_n5-6_p1139_Solman
work_keys_str_mv AT solmansilvinaalicia evaluationofanensembleofregionalclimatemodelsimulationsoversouthamericadrivenbytheerainterimreanalysismodelperformanceanduncertainties
AT pessacgnatalializ evaluationofanensembleofregionalclimatemodelsimulationsoversouthamericadrivenbytheerainterimreanalysismodelperformanceanduncertainties
AT berberyernestohugo evaluationofanensembleofregionalclimatemodelsimulationsoversouthamericadrivenbytheerainterimreanalysismodelperformanceanduncertainties
_version_ 1768545794423521280

Ejemplares similares