Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America

The ability of four regional climate models to reproduce the present-day South American climate is examined with emphasis on La Plata Basin. Models were integrated for the period 1991-2000 with initial and lateral boundary conditions from ERA-40 Reanalysis. The ensemble sea level pressure, maximum a...

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Autores principales:	Carril, Andrea Fabiana, Menendez, Claudio Guillermo, Robledo, Federico Ariel, Sorensson, Anna Amelia, Tencer, Bárbara, Penalba, Olga C., Rusticucci, Matilde, Salio, Paola Veronica, Zaninelli, Pablo Gabriel
Publicado:	2012
Materias:	Multi-RCM ensemble validation Regional climate models South America South Eastern South America boundary condition climate modeling climatology ensemble forecasting orographic effect precipitation intensity regional climate spatial analysis La Plata Basin
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril
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spelling	paper:paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril2023-06-08T15:52:41Z Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America Carril, Andrea Fabiana Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Robledo, Federico Ariel Sorensson, Anna Amelia Tencer, Bárbara Penalba, Olga C. Rusticucci, Matilde Salio, Paola Veronica Zaninelli, Pablo Gabriel Multi-RCM ensemble validation Regional climate models South America South Eastern South America boundary condition climate modeling climatology ensemble forecasting orographic effect precipitation intensity regional climate spatial analysis La Plata Basin The ability of four regional climate models to reproduce the present-day South American climate is examined with emphasis on La Plata Basin. Models were integrated for the period 1991-2000 with initial and lateral boundary conditions from ERA-40 Reanalysis. The ensemble sea level pressure, maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation are evaluated in terms of seasonal means and extreme indices based on a percentile approach. Dispersion among the individual models and uncertainties when comparing the ensemble mean with different climatologies are also discussed. The ensemble mean is warmer than the observations in South Eastern South America (SESA), especially for minimum winter temperatures with errors increasing in magnitude towards the tails of the distributions. The ensemble mean reproduces the broad spatial pattern of precipitation, but overestimates the convective precipitation in the tropics and the orographic precipitation along the Andes and over the Brazilian Highlands, and underestimates the precipitation near the monsoon core region. The models overestimate the number of wet days and underestimate the daily intensity of rainfall for both seasons suggesting a premature triggering of convection. The skill of models to simulate the intensity of convective precipitation in summer in SESA and the variability associated with heavy precipitation events (the upper quartile daily precipitation) is far from satisfactory. Owing to the sparseness of the observing network, ensemble and observations uncertainties in seasonal means are comparable for some regions and seasons. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Fil:Carril, A.F. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Menéndez, C.G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Robledo, F. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Sörensson, A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Tencer, B. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Penalba, O. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Rusticucci, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Salio, P. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Zaninelli, P. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2012 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Multi-RCM ensemble validation Regional climate models South America South Eastern South America boundary condition climate modeling climatology ensemble forecasting orographic effect precipitation intensity regional climate spatial analysis La Plata Basin
spellingShingle	Multi-RCM ensemble validation Regional climate models South America South Eastern South America boundary condition climate modeling climatology ensemble forecasting orographic effect precipitation intensity regional climate spatial analysis La Plata Basin Carril, Andrea Fabiana Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Robledo, Federico Ariel Sorensson, Anna Amelia Tencer, Bárbara Penalba, Olga C. Rusticucci, Matilde Salio, Paola Veronica Zaninelli, Pablo Gabriel Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America
topic_facet	Multi-RCM ensemble validation Regional climate models South America South Eastern South America boundary condition climate modeling climatology ensemble forecasting orographic effect precipitation intensity regional climate spatial analysis La Plata Basin
description	The ability of four regional climate models to reproduce the present-day South American climate is examined with emphasis on La Plata Basin. Models were integrated for the period 1991-2000 with initial and lateral boundary conditions from ERA-40 Reanalysis. The ensemble sea level pressure, maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation are evaluated in terms of seasonal means and extreme indices based on a percentile approach. Dispersion among the individual models and uncertainties when comparing the ensemble mean with different climatologies are also discussed. The ensemble mean is warmer than the observations in South Eastern South America (SESA), especially for minimum winter temperatures with errors increasing in magnitude towards the tails of the distributions. The ensemble mean reproduces the broad spatial pattern of precipitation, but overestimates the convective precipitation in the tropics and the orographic precipitation along the Andes and over the Brazilian Highlands, and underestimates the precipitation near the monsoon core region. The models overestimate the number of wet days and underestimate the daily intensity of rainfall for both seasons suggesting a premature triggering of convection. The skill of models to simulate the intensity of convective precipitation in summer in SESA and the variability associated with heavy precipitation events (the upper quartile daily precipitation) is far from satisfactory. Owing to the sparseness of the observing network, ensemble and observations uncertainties in seasonal means are comparable for some regions and seasons. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
author	Carril, Andrea Fabiana Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Robledo, Federico Ariel Sorensson, Anna Amelia Tencer, Bárbara Penalba, Olga C. Rusticucci, Matilde Salio, Paola Veronica Zaninelli, Pablo Gabriel
author_facet	Carril, Andrea Fabiana Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Robledo, Federico Ariel Sorensson, Anna Amelia Tencer, Bárbara Penalba, Olga C. Rusticucci, Matilde Salio, Paola Veronica Zaninelli, Pablo Gabriel
author_sort	Carril, Andrea Fabiana
title	Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America
title_short	Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America
title_full	Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America
title_fullStr	Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America
title_full_unstemmed	Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America
title_sort	performance of a multi-rcm ensemble for south eastern south america
publishDate	2012
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril
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Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America

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