Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence

In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel's technique of first a...

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Autores principales:	Silbergleit, Virginia Mabel, Prezzi, Claudia Beatriz
Publicado:	2012
Materias:	Major Chilean earthquakes Nazca plate South American plate Statistical analysis earthquake epicenter earthquake event earthquake magnitude earthquake recurrence statistical analysis subduction Arica Arica and Parinacota Chile
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit
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spelling	paper:paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit2023-06-08T15:50:15Z Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence Silbergleit, Virginia Mabel Prezzi, Claudia Beatriz Major Chilean earthquakes Nazca plate South American plate Statistical analysis earthquake epicenter earthquake event earthquake magnitude earthquake recurrence Nazca plate statistical analysis subduction Arica Arica and Parinacota Chile In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel's technique of first asymptotic distribution, Wemelsfelder's theory and Gutenberg-Richter relationship, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8. 7-8. 9 could occur along Chile. According to our analysis, probabilities for the occurrence of such a strong earthquake range between 64 and 46% respectively. Particularly in the very well known "seismic gap" of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77-78 mm/year represents more than 10 m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134 years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude >8. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Fil:Silbergleit, V. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Prezzi, C. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2012 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Major Chilean earthquakes Nazca plate South American plate Statistical analysis earthquake epicenter earthquake event earthquake magnitude earthquake recurrence Nazca plate statistical analysis subduction Arica Arica and Parinacota Chile
spellingShingle	Major Chilean earthquakes Nazca plate South American plate Statistical analysis earthquake epicenter earthquake event earthquake magnitude earthquake recurrence Nazca plate statistical analysis subduction Arica Arica and Parinacota Chile Silbergleit, Virginia Mabel Prezzi, Claudia Beatriz Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence
topic_facet	Major Chilean earthquakes Nazca plate South American plate Statistical analysis earthquake epicenter earthquake event earthquake magnitude earthquake recurrence Nazca plate statistical analysis subduction Arica Arica and Parinacota Chile
description	In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel's technique of first asymptotic distribution, Wemelsfelder's theory and Gutenberg-Richter relationship, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8. 7-8. 9 could occur along Chile. According to our analysis, probabilities for the occurrence of such a strong earthquake range between 64 and 46% respectively. Particularly in the very well known "seismic gap" of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77-78 mm/year represents more than 10 m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134 years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude >8. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
author	Silbergleit, Virginia Mabel Prezzi, Claudia Beatriz
author_facet	Silbergleit, Virginia Mabel Prezzi, Claudia Beatriz
author_sort	Silbergleit, Virginia Mabel
title	Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence
title_short	Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence
title_full	Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence
title_fullStr	Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence
title_full_unstemmed	Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence
title_sort	statistics of major chilean earthquakes recurrence
publishDate	2012
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit
work_keys_str_mv	AT silbergleitvirginiamabel statisticsofmajorchileanearthquakesrecurrence AT prezziclaudiabeatriz statisticsofmajorchileanearthquakesrecurrence
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Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence

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