Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models

Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant o...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal:	Vera, Carolina Susana
Publicado:	2015
Materias:	Anthropogenic forcing Climate change Precipitation trends South America Rain Anthropogenic influence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Internal climate variability Southeastern South America Summer precipitation Climate models anthropogenic effect atmospheric modeling climate change precipitation (climatology) summer trend analysis
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08998418_v35_n10_p3172_Vera http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08998418_v35_n10_p3172_Vera
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_08998418_v35_n10_p3172_Vera
record_format	dspace
spelling	paper:paper_08998418_v35_n10_p3172_Vera2023-06-08T15:49:44Z Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models Vera, Carolina Susana Anthropogenic forcing Climate change Precipitation trends South America Climate change Rain Anthropogenic forcing Anthropogenic influence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Internal climate variability Precipitation trends South America Southeastern South America Summer precipitation Climate models anthropogenic effect atmospheric modeling climate change precipitation (climatology) summer trend analysis South America Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant observed features. Mean trends obtained from an ensemble of 59 simulations from 14 models for the historical experiment (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings) are able to reproduce those precipitation changes, although weaker than observed. Most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes at both regions. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability) are still large. Mean trends for the historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment, which exhibit negligible mean values at both regions. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA and SAn regions during the last century. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society. Fil:Vera, C.S. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2015 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08998418_v35_n10_p3172_Vera http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08998418_v35_n10_p3172_Vera
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Anthropogenic forcing Climate change Precipitation trends South America Climate change Rain Anthropogenic forcing Anthropogenic influence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Internal climate variability Precipitation trends South America Southeastern South America Summer precipitation Climate models anthropogenic effect atmospheric modeling climate change precipitation (climatology) summer trend analysis South America
spellingShingle	Anthropogenic forcing Climate change Precipitation trends South America Climate change Rain Anthropogenic forcing Anthropogenic influence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Internal climate variability Precipitation trends South America Southeastern South America Summer precipitation Climate models anthropogenic effect atmospheric modeling climate change precipitation (climatology) summer trend analysis South America Vera, Carolina Susana Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
topic_facet	Anthropogenic forcing Climate change Precipitation trends South America Climate change Rain Anthropogenic forcing Anthropogenic influence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Internal climate variability Precipitation trends South America Southeastern South America Summer precipitation Climate models anthropogenic effect atmospheric modeling climate change precipitation (climatology) summer trend analysis South America
description	Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant observed features. Mean trends obtained from an ensemble of 59 simulations from 14 models for the historical experiment (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings) are able to reproduce those precipitation changes, although weaker than observed. Most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes at both regions. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability) are still large. Mean trends for the historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment, which exhibit negligible mean values at both regions. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA and SAn regions during the last century. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.
author	Vera, Carolina Susana
author_facet	Vera, Carolina Susana
author_sort	Vera, Carolina Susana
title	Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_short	Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_full	Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_fullStr	Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_full_unstemmed	Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_sort	anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over south america in cmip5 models
publishDate	2015
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08998418_v35_n10_p3172_Vera http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08998418_v35_n10_p3172_Vera
work_keys_str_mv	AT veracarolinasusana anthropogenicinfluenceonsummerprecipitationtrendsoversouthamericaincmip5models
_version_	1768546590770855936

Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models

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