Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets

In this study, a set of five reanalysis datasets [ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R2), MERRA, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)] is used to provide a robust estimation of precipitation change in the middle-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere du...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Solman, Silvina Alicia, Orlanski, Isidoro
Publicado: 2016
Materias:
Atm/ocean structure/phenomena
Circulation/dynamics
Databases
Extratropical cyclones
Large-scale motions
Models and modeling
Observational techniques and algorithms
Precipitation
Reanalysis data
Trends
Variability
Database systems
Greenhouse gases
Inverse problems
Moisture
Ozone layer
Precipitation (chemical)
Storms
Large scale motion
Reanalysis
Climate change
algorithm
atmospheric modeling
climate change
data set
ensemble forecasting
precipitation (climatology)
Southern Hemisphere
trend analysis
tropical cyclone
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08948755_v29_n5_p1673_Solman
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08948755_v29_n5_p1673_Solman
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_08948755_v29_n5_p1673_Solman
record_format dspace
spelling paper:paper_08948755_v29_n5_p1673_Solman2023-06-08T15:47:55Z Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets Solman, Silvina Alicia Orlanski, Isidoro Atm/ocean structure/phenomena Circulation/dynamics Databases Extratropical cyclones Large-scale motions Models and modeling Observational techniques and algorithms Precipitation Reanalysis data Trends Variability Database systems Greenhouse gases Inverse problems Moisture Ozone layer Precipitation (chemical) Storms Extratropical cyclones Large scale motion Reanalysis Trends Variability Climate change algorithm atmospheric modeling climate change data set ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) Southern Hemisphere trend analysis tropical cyclone In this study, a set of five reanalysis datasets [ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R2), MERRA, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)] is used to provide a robust estimation of precipitation change in the middle-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere during the last three decades. Based on several metrics accounting for the eddy activity and moisture availability, an attempt is also made to identify the dynamical mechanisms triggering these changes during extended summer and winter seasons. To that aim, a weighted reanalysis ensemble is built using the inverse of the variance as weighting factors for each variable. Results showed that the weighted reanalysis ensemble reproduced the observed precipitation changes at high and middle latitudes during the two seasons, as depicted by the GPCP dataset. For the extended summer season, precipitation changes were dynamically consistent with changes in the eddy activity, attributed mostly to ozone depletion. For the extended winter season, the eddy activity and moisture availability both contributed to the precipitation changes, with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases being the main driver of the climate change signal. In addition, output from a five-member ensemble of the high-resolution GFDL CM2.5 for the period 1979-2010 was used in order to explore the capability of the model in reproducing both the observed precipitation change and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The model was able to capture the rainfall change signal. However, the increased availability of moisture from the lower levels controls the precipitation change during both summer and winter. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Fil:Solman, S.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Orlanski, I. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2016 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08948755_v29_n5_p1673_Solman http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08948755_v29_n5_p1673_Solman
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Atm/ocean structure/phenomena
Circulation/dynamics
Databases
Extratropical cyclones
Large-scale motions
Models and modeling
Observational techniques and algorithms
Precipitation
Reanalysis data
Trends
Variability
Database systems
Greenhouse gases
Inverse problems
Moisture
Ozone layer
Precipitation (chemical)
Storms
Extratropical cyclones
Large scale motion
Reanalysis
Trends
Variability
Climate change
algorithm
atmospheric modeling
climate change
data set
ensemble forecasting
precipitation (climatology)
Southern Hemisphere
trend analysis
tropical cyclone
spellingShingle Atm/ocean structure/phenomena
Circulation/dynamics
Databases
Extratropical cyclones
Large-scale motions
Models and modeling
Observational techniques and algorithms
Precipitation
Reanalysis data
Trends
Variability
Database systems
Greenhouse gases
Inverse problems
Moisture
Ozone layer
Precipitation (chemical)
Storms
Extratropical cyclones
Large scale motion
Reanalysis
Trends
Variability
Climate change
algorithm
atmospheric modeling
climate change
data set
ensemble forecasting
precipitation (climatology)
Southern Hemisphere
trend analysis
tropical cyclone
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Orlanski, Isidoro
Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
topic_facet Atm/ocean structure/phenomena
Circulation/dynamics
Databases
Extratropical cyclones
Large-scale motions
Models and modeling
Observational techniques and algorithms
Precipitation
Reanalysis data
Trends
Variability
Database systems
Greenhouse gases
Inverse problems
Moisture
Ozone layer
Precipitation (chemical)
Storms
Extratropical cyclones
Large scale motion
Reanalysis
Trends
Variability
Climate change
algorithm
atmospheric modeling
climate change
data set
ensemble forecasting
precipitation (climatology)
Southern Hemisphere
trend analysis
tropical cyclone
description In this study, a set of five reanalysis datasets [ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R2), MERRA, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)] is used to provide a robust estimation of precipitation change in the middle-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere during the last three decades. Based on several metrics accounting for the eddy activity and moisture availability, an attempt is also made to identify the dynamical mechanisms triggering these changes during extended summer and winter seasons. To that aim, a weighted reanalysis ensemble is built using the inverse of the variance as weighting factors for each variable. Results showed that the weighted reanalysis ensemble reproduced the observed precipitation changes at high and middle latitudes during the two seasons, as depicted by the GPCP dataset. For the extended summer season, precipitation changes were dynamically consistent with changes in the eddy activity, attributed mostly to ozone depletion. For the extended winter season, the eddy activity and moisture availability both contributed to the precipitation changes, with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases being the main driver of the climate change signal. In addition, output from a five-member ensemble of the high-resolution GFDL CM2.5 for the period 1979-2010 was used in order to explore the capability of the model in reproducing both the observed precipitation change and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The model was able to capture the rainfall change signal. However, the increased availability of moisture from the lower levels controls the precipitation change during both summer and winter. © 2016 American Meteorological Society.
author Solman, Silvina Alicia
Orlanski, Isidoro
author_facet Solman, Silvina Alicia
Orlanski, Isidoro
author_sort Solman, Silvina Alicia
title Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_short Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_full Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_fullStr Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_full_unstemmed Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_sort climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
publishDate 2016
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08948755_v29_n5_p1673_Solman
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08948755_v29_n5_p1673_Solman
work_keys_str_mv AT solmansilvinaalicia climatechangeovertheextratropicalsouthernhemispherethetalefromanensembleofreanalysisdatasets
AT orlanskiisidoro climatechangeovertheextratropicalsouthernhemispherethetalefromanensembleofreanalysisdatasets
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