Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

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We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly af...

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Autores principales:	Dorso, Claudio Oscar, Otero, Marcelo Javier
Publicado:	2016
Materias:	Foci coalescence Human mobility Stochastic modelling Vector-borne diseases Dynamics Epidemiology Stochastic systems Temperature Driving forces Epidemic spreading Human population Low temperatures Mobility pattern Spatio-temporal dynamics Vector-borne disease Stochastic models
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak
record_format	dspace
spelling	paper:paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak2023-06-08T15:40:18Z Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility Dorso, Claudio Oscar Otero, Marcelo Javier Foci coalescence Human mobility Stochastic modelling Vector-borne diseases Dynamics Epidemiology Stochastic systems Temperature Driving forces Epidemic spreading Human mobility Human population Low temperatures Mobility pattern Spatio-temporal dynamics Vector-borne disease Stochastic models We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Fil:Dorso, C.O. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Otero, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2016 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Foci coalescence Human mobility Stochastic modelling Vector-borne diseases Dynamics Epidemiology Stochastic systems Temperature Driving forces Epidemic spreading Human mobility Human population Low temperatures Mobility pattern Spatio-temporal dynamics Vector-borne disease Stochastic models
spellingShingle	Foci coalescence Human mobility Stochastic modelling Vector-borne diseases Dynamics Epidemiology Stochastic systems Temperature Driving forces Epidemic spreading Human mobility Human population Low temperatures Mobility pattern Spatio-temporal dynamics Vector-borne disease Stochastic models Dorso, Claudio Oscar Otero, Marcelo Javier Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
topic_facet	Foci coalescence Human mobility Stochastic modelling Vector-borne diseases Dynamics Epidemiology Stochastic systems Temperature Driving forces Epidemic spreading Human mobility Human population Low temperatures Mobility pattern Spatio-temporal dynamics Vector-borne disease Stochastic models
description	We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
author	Dorso, Claudio Oscar Otero, Marcelo Javier
author_facet	Dorso, Claudio Oscar Otero, Marcelo Javier
author_sort	Dorso, Claudio Oscar
title	Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_short	Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_full	Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_fullStr	Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
title_sort	modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility
publishDate	2016
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v447_n_p129_Barmak
work_keys_str_mv	AT dorsoclaudiooscar modellingdengueepidemicspreadingwithhumanmobility AT oteromarcelojavier modellingdengueepidemicspreadingwithhumanmobility
_version_	1768541897577463808

Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

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