Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT
The frequency of occurrence of temperature extreme events has changed throughout the last century: significant positive trends in warm nights and negative trends in cold nights have been observed all over the world. In Argentina, the probability of occurrence of warm annual extremes of maximum tempe...
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Acceso en línea: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer |
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paper:paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer2023-06-08T15:19:43Z Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT Tencer, Bárbara Rusticucci, Matilde Argentina Generalized pareto distribution Return values Temperature extreme events decadal variation extreme event probability temperature profile trend analysis Argentina The frequency of occurrence of temperature extreme events has changed throughout the last century: significant positive trends in warm nights and negative trends in cold nights have been observed all over the world. In Argentina, the probability of occurrence of warm annual extremes of maximum temperature has decreased in the last decades, while there has been an increase in warm annual extremes of minimum temperature. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate observed interdecadal changes in the distribution of temperature events that exceed a fixed threshold in five meteorological stations from Argentina over the period 1941-2000, by applying the extreme value theory (EVT). The availability of daily data allows fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to daily temperature anomalies over the 90th or below the 10th percentile, in order to estimate return values of extreme events. Daily temperature anomalies are divided into three consecutive and non-overlapping subperiods of 20 years. GPD is fitted to each subperiod independently and a comparison is made between return values estimated in each subperiod. Results show that there is a decrease in the intensity of warm extreme events during the whole period, together with an increase in its frequency of occurrence during the last 20 years of the twentieth century. Cold extremes also show a decrease in their intensity. However, changes in their frequency of occurrence are not so consistent between the different stations analyzed. Fil:Tencer, B. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Rusticucci, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2012 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer |
institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
institution_str |
I-28 |
repository_str |
R-134 |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
topic |
Argentina Generalized pareto distribution Return values Temperature extreme events decadal variation extreme event probability temperature profile trend analysis Argentina |
spellingShingle |
Argentina Generalized pareto distribution Return values Temperature extreme events decadal variation extreme event probability temperature profile trend analysis Argentina Tencer, Bárbara Rusticucci, Matilde Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT |
topic_facet |
Argentina Generalized pareto distribution Return values Temperature extreme events decadal variation extreme event probability temperature profile trend analysis Argentina |
description |
The frequency of occurrence of temperature extreme events has changed throughout the last century: significant positive trends in warm nights and negative trends in cold nights have been observed all over the world. In Argentina, the probability of occurrence of warm annual extremes of maximum temperature has decreased in the last decades, while there has been an increase in warm annual extremes of minimum temperature. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate observed interdecadal changes in the distribution of temperature events that exceed a fixed threshold in five meteorological stations from Argentina over the period 1941-2000, by applying the extreme value theory (EVT). The availability of daily data allows fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to daily temperature anomalies over the 90th or below the 10th percentile, in order to estimate return values of extreme events. Daily temperature anomalies are divided into three consecutive and non-overlapping subperiods of 20 years. GPD is fitted to each subperiod independently and a comparison is made between return values estimated in each subperiod. Results show that there is a decrease in the intensity of warm extreme events during the whole period, together with an increase in its frequency of occurrence during the last 20 years of the twentieth century. Cold extremes also show a decrease in their intensity. However, changes in their frequency of occurrence are not so consistent between the different stations analyzed. |
author |
Tencer, Bárbara Rusticucci, Matilde |
author_facet |
Tencer, Bárbara Rusticucci, Matilde |
author_sort |
Tencer, Bárbara |
title |
Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT |
title_short |
Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT |
title_full |
Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT |
title_sort |
analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in argentina applying evt |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT tencerbarbara analysisofinterdecadalvariabilityoftemperatureextremeeventsinargentinaapplyingevt AT rusticuccimatilde analysisofinterdecadalvariabilityoftemperatureextremeeventsinargentinaapplyingevt |
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1768545414886195200 |