Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application
Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease, has expanded from rural endemic to urban areas due to migration. This so-called urban Chagas is an emerging health problem in American, European, Australian and Japanese cities. We present a mathematical model to analyse the dyna...
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2014
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| Acceso en línea: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00311820_v141_n6_p837_Fabrizio http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00311820_v141_n6_p837_Fabrizio |
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paper:paper_00311820_v141_n6_p837_Fabrizio2023-06-08T14:56:58Z Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application basic reproduction number mathematical model next-generation matrix Trypanosoma cruzi urban Chagas Argentina article basic reproduction number birth rate blood transfusion Chagas disease chronic disease city congenital disorder disease transmission dynamics epidemic human major clinical study mathematical model migration mortality priority journal sensitivity analysis Trypanosoma cruzi urban area Chagas disease epidemiology parasitology physiology theoretical model transmission Argentina Basic Reproduction Number Chagas Disease Humans Models, Theoretical Trypanosoma cruzi Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease, has expanded from rural endemic to urban areas due to migration. This so-called urban Chagas is an emerging health problem in American, European, Australian and Japanese cities. We present a mathematical model to analyse the dynamics of urban Chagas to better understand its epidemiology. The model considers the three clinical stages of the disease and the main routes of inter-human transmission. To overcome the complexities of the infection dynamics, the next-generation matrix method was developed. We deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated by an infected individual through each transmission route at each disease stage, the basic reproduction number and the number of individuals at each disease stage at the outbreak of the infection. The analysis was applied to Buenos Aires city (Argentina). We estimated that 94% of the new infections are generated by individuals in the chronic indeterminate stage. When migration was not considered, the infection disappeared slowly and R 0=0·079, whereas when migration was considered, the number of individuals in each stage of the infection tended to stabilize. The expressions can be used to estimate different numbers of infected individuals in any place where only inter-human transmission is possible. © 2014 Cambridge University Press. 2014 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00311820_v141_n6_p837_Fabrizio http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00311820_v141_n6_p837_Fabrizio |
| institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| institution_str |
I-28 |
| repository_str |
R-134 |
| collection |
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
| topic |
basic reproduction number mathematical model next-generation matrix Trypanosoma cruzi urban Chagas Argentina article basic reproduction number birth rate blood transfusion Chagas disease chronic disease city congenital disorder disease transmission dynamics epidemic human major clinical study mathematical model migration mortality priority journal sensitivity analysis Trypanosoma cruzi urban area Chagas disease epidemiology parasitology physiology theoretical model transmission Argentina Basic Reproduction Number Chagas Disease Humans Models, Theoretical Trypanosoma cruzi |
| spellingShingle |
basic reproduction number mathematical model next-generation matrix Trypanosoma cruzi urban Chagas Argentina article basic reproduction number birth rate blood transfusion Chagas disease chronic disease city congenital disorder disease transmission dynamics epidemic human major clinical study mathematical model migration mortality priority journal sensitivity analysis Trypanosoma cruzi urban area Chagas disease epidemiology parasitology physiology theoretical model transmission Argentina Basic Reproduction Number Chagas Disease Humans Models, Theoretical Trypanosoma cruzi Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application |
| topic_facet |
basic reproduction number mathematical model next-generation matrix Trypanosoma cruzi urban Chagas Argentina article basic reproduction number birth rate blood transfusion Chagas disease chronic disease city congenital disorder disease transmission dynamics epidemic human major clinical study mathematical model migration mortality priority journal sensitivity analysis Trypanosoma cruzi urban area Chagas disease epidemiology parasitology physiology theoretical model transmission Argentina Basic Reproduction Number Chagas Disease Humans Models, Theoretical Trypanosoma cruzi |
| description |
Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease, has expanded from rural endemic to urban areas due to migration. This so-called urban Chagas is an emerging health problem in American, European, Australian and Japanese cities. We present a mathematical model to analyse the dynamics of urban Chagas to better understand its epidemiology. The model considers the three clinical stages of the disease and the main routes of inter-human transmission. To overcome the complexities of the infection dynamics, the next-generation matrix method was developed. We deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated by an infected individual through each transmission route at each disease stage, the basic reproduction number and the number of individuals at each disease stage at the outbreak of the infection. The analysis was applied to Buenos Aires city (Argentina). We estimated that 94% of the new infections are generated by individuals in the chronic indeterminate stage. When migration was not considered, the infection disappeared slowly and R 0=0·079, whereas when migration was considered, the number of individuals in each stage of the infection tended to stabilize. The expressions can be used to estimate different numbers of infected individuals in any place where only inter-human transmission is possible. © 2014 Cambridge University Press. |
| title |
Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application |
| title_short |
Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application |
| title_full |
Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application |
| title_fullStr |
Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application |
| title_sort |
modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease: analysis and application |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00311820_v141_n6_p837_Fabrizio http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00311820_v141_n6_p837_Fabrizio |
| _version_ |
1768542825932128256 |