The false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Dirección Nacional de Ciencia e Innovación en Productos y Servicios.

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: de Elía, Ramón
Formato: Artículo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Springer 2022
Materias:
WARNING SYSTEM
FALSE ALARM
SURPRISE
AMBIGUITY
EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY
WEATHER EVENTS
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12160/1994
Aporte de:
El Abrigo - Repositorio Institucional del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) de Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN)
id I63-R169-20.500.12160-1994
record_format dspace
spelling I63-R169-20.500.12160-19942024-01-22T16:42:01Z The false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective de Elía, Ramón WARNING SYSTEM FALSE ALARM SURPRISE AMBIGUITY EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY WEATHER EVENTS Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Dirección Nacional de Ciencia e Innovación en Productos y Servicios. Early warning systems for weather events are becoming widespread as technological capacities develop. For warnings to be efective, they must allow enough lead time to deploy protective measures yet the earlier a warning is broadcast the greater may be its uncertainty. In dichotomous warning systems (i.e., warning-no warning), a measure of this uncertainty is the number of wrong messages issued in terms of “surprises” (events missed by the warning system) or “false alarms.” Given the range of repercussions of errors of either kind, warning system users can be expected to have diferent reactions to this uncertainty. Some will cope better with false alarms, others with surprises. This will afect preferences with respect to system sensitivity; that is, the threshold of threat evidence required for the realization of the warning, each threshold having a given false alarm/surprise trade-of. This article adopts an expected utility theory perspective to defne diferent false alarm/ surprise trade-ofs for users of a warning system. An analytical expression for a cost function is proposed, which under certain conditions depends only on one parameter under the control of forecasters (i.e., number of tolerated surprises). We show quantitatively how optimal trade-ofs depend on what is at stake for users and their capability to react to warnings, and how users’ varying needs represent a dilemma for a weather service regarding false alarm/surprise trade-of settings. In particular, it is shown that unbiased warnings—a condition often rewarded at the verifcation stage—do not hold any specifc virtue for minimizing losses. A general discussion follows regarding the need to better understand and better communicate this dilemma to policy makers, users, and the public. 2022-08-10T15:29:35Z 2022-08-10T15:29:35Z 2022-05 Artículo de Elía, R. The false alarm/surprise trade-off in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective. Environ Syst Decis (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-022-09863-1 2194-5411 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12160/1994 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess NO POSEE LICENCIA CC Springer
institution Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN)
institution_str I-63
repository_str R-169
collection El Abrigo - Repositorio Institucional del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN)
language Inglés
topic WARNING SYSTEM
FALSE ALARM
SURPRISE
AMBIGUITY
EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY
WEATHER EVENTS
spellingShingle WARNING SYSTEM
FALSE ALARM
SURPRISE
AMBIGUITY
EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY
WEATHER EVENTS
de Elía, Ramón
The false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective
topic_facet WARNING SYSTEM
FALSE ALARM
SURPRISE
AMBIGUITY
EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY
WEATHER EVENTS
description Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Dirección Nacional de Ciencia e Innovación en Productos y Servicios.
format Artículo
author de Elía, Ramón
author_facet de Elía, Ramón
author_sort de Elía, Ramón
title The false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective
title_short The false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective
title_full The false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective
title_fullStr The false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective
title_full_unstemmed The false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective
title_sort false alarm/surprise trade‑of in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective
publisher Springer
publishDate 2022
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12160/1994
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