Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds

Mostrar todas las versiones(2)

The aggregation of many lay judgements generates surprisingly accurate estimates. This phenomenon, called the “wisdom of crowds”, has been demonstrated in domains such as medical decision making and financial forecasting. Previous research identified two factors driving this effect: the accuracy o...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Navajas, Joaquín, et al.
Formato: Artículo acceptedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 2024
Materias:
Toma de Decisiones
Decision making
Comportamiento social
Social behavior
Modelos matemáticos
Mathematical models
Wisdom of crowds
Collective intelligence
Inteligencia Colectiva
Sabiduría de las masas
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12785
Aporte de:
Repositorio Digital Universidad Torcuato Di Tella de Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
id I57-R163-20.500.13098-12785
record_format dspace
spelling I57-R163-20.500.13098-127852024-06-19T07:00:20Z Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds Navajas, Joaquín et al. Toma de Decisiones Decision making Comportamiento social Social behavior Modelos matemáticos Mathematical models Wisdom of crowds Collective intelligence Inteligencia Colectiva Sabiduría de las masas The aggregation of many lay judgements generates surprisingly accurate estimates. This phenomenon, called the “wisdom of crowds”, has been demonstrated in domains such as medical decision making and financial forecasting. Previous research identified two factors driving this effect: the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most available strategies to enhance the wisdom of crowds have focused on improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity. Here, we study a complementary approach to reduce collective error by promoting erroneous divergent opinions. This strategy proposes to anchor half of the crowd to a small value and the other half to a large value before eliciting and averaging all estimates. Consistent with our mathematical modeling, four experiments (N=1362 adults) demonstrate that this method is effective for estimation and forecasting tasks. Beyond practical implications, these findings offer new theoretical insights into the epistemic value of collective decision making. La versión publicada de este artículo se encuentra disponible en se encuentra publicado en Psychological Science (e-ISSN: 1467-9280) 2024-06-18T21:39:31Z 2024-06-18T21:39:31Z 2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12785 eng https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976241252138 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/ar/ 49 p. application/pdf application/pdf Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
institution Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
institution_str I-57
repository_str R-163
collection Repositorio Digital Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv eng
topic Toma de Decisiones
Decision making
Comportamiento social
Social behavior
Modelos matemáticos
Mathematical models
Wisdom of crowds
Collective intelligence
Inteligencia Colectiva
Sabiduría de las masas
spellingShingle Toma de Decisiones
Decision making
Comportamiento social
Social behavior
Modelos matemáticos
Mathematical models
Wisdom of crowds
Collective intelligence
Inteligencia Colectiva
Sabiduría de las masas
Navajas, Joaquín
et al.
Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
topic_facet Toma de Decisiones
Decision making
Comportamiento social
Social behavior
Modelos matemáticos
Mathematical models
Wisdom of crowds
Collective intelligence
Inteligencia Colectiva
Sabiduría de las masas
description The aggregation of many lay judgements generates surprisingly accurate estimates. This phenomenon, called the “wisdom of crowds”, has been demonstrated in domains such as medical decision making and financial forecasting. Previous research identified two factors driving this effect: the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most available strategies to enhance the wisdom of crowds have focused on improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity. Here, we study a complementary approach to reduce collective error by promoting erroneous divergent opinions. This strategy proposes to anchor half of the crowd to a small value and the other half to a large value before eliciting and averaging all estimates. Consistent with our mathematical modeling, four experiments (N=1362 adults) demonstrate that this method is effective for estimation and forecasting tasks. Beyond practical implications, these findings offer new theoretical insights into the epistemic value of collective decision making.
format Artículo
acceptedVersion
author Navajas, Joaquín
et al.
author_facet Navajas, Joaquín
et al.
author_sort Navajas, Joaquín
title Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_short Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_full Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_fullStr Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_full_unstemmed Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_sort promoting erroneous divergent opinions increases the wisdom of crowds
publisher Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
publishDate 2024
url https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12785
work_keys_str_mv AT navajasjoaquin promotingerroneousdivergentopinionsincreasesthewisdomofcrowds
AT etal promotingerroneousdivergentopinionsincreasesthewisdomofcrowds
_version_ 1808040691490619392

Ejemplares similares