Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds

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The aggregation of many lay judgments generates surprisingly accurate estimates. This phenomenon, called the “wisdom of crowds,” has been demonstrated in domains such as medical decision-making and financial forecasting. Previous research identified two factors driving this effect: the accuracy of i...

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Autores principales: Navajas, Joaquín, et al.
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 2024
Materias:
Toma de Decisiones
Decision making
Comportamiento social
Social behavior
Modelos matemáticos
Mathematical models
Wisdom of crowds
Sabiduría de las multitudes
Forecasting
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12784
https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976241252138
Aporte de:
Repositorio Digital Universidad Torcuato Di Tella de Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
id I57-R163-20.500.13098-12784
record_format dspace
spelling I57-R163-20.500.13098-127842024-06-19T07:00:18Z Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds Navajas, Joaquín et al. Toma de Decisiones Decision making Comportamiento social Social behavior Modelos matemáticos Mathematical models Wisdom of crowds Sabiduría de las multitudes Forecasting The aggregation of many lay judgments generates surprisingly accurate estimates. This phenomenon, called the “wisdom of crowds,” has been demonstrated in domains such as medical decision-making and financial forecasting. Previous research identified two factors driving this effect: the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most available strategies to enhance the wisdom of crowds have focused on improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity. Here, we study a complementary approach to reduce collective error by promoting erroneous divergent opinions. This strategy proposes to anchor half of the crowd to a small value and the other half to a large value before eliciting and averaging all estimates. Consistent with our mathematical modeling, four experiments (N = 1,362 adults) demonstrated that this method is effective for estimation and forecasting tasks. Beyond the practical implications, these findings offer new theoretical insights into the epistemic value of collective decision-making. El artículo se encuentra publicado en Psychological Science (e-ISSN: 1467-9280) /// Por cuestiones de Copyright no puede consultarse online 2024-06-18T21:26:04Z 2024-06-18T21:26:04Z 2024-06-12 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12784 https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976241252138 eng Psychological Science (e-ISSN: 1467-9280) info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/?language=es 15 p. application/pdf application/pdf Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
institution Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
institution_str I-57
repository_str R-163
collection Repositorio Digital Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv eng
topic Toma de Decisiones
Decision making
Comportamiento social
Social behavior
Modelos matemáticos
Mathematical models
Wisdom of crowds
Sabiduría de las multitudes
Forecasting
spellingShingle Toma de Decisiones
Decision making
Comportamiento social
Social behavior
Modelos matemáticos
Mathematical models
Wisdom of crowds
Sabiduría de las multitudes
Forecasting
Navajas, Joaquín
et al.
Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
topic_facet Toma de Decisiones
Decision making
Comportamiento social
Social behavior
Modelos matemáticos
Mathematical models
Wisdom of crowds
Sabiduría de las multitudes
Forecasting
description The aggregation of many lay judgments generates surprisingly accurate estimates. This phenomenon, called the “wisdom of crowds,” has been demonstrated in domains such as medical decision-making and financial forecasting. Previous research identified two factors driving this effect: the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most available strategies to enhance the wisdom of crowds have focused on improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity. Here, we study a complementary approach to reduce collective error by promoting erroneous divergent opinions. This strategy proposes to anchor half of the crowd to a small value and the other half to a large value before eliciting and averaging all estimates. Consistent with our mathematical modeling, four experiments (N = 1,362 adults) demonstrated that this method is effective for estimation and forecasting tasks. Beyond the practical implications, these findings offer new theoretical insights into the epistemic value of collective decision-making.
format Artículo
publishedVersion
author Navajas, Joaquín
et al.
author_facet Navajas, Joaquín
et al.
author_sort Navajas, Joaquín
title Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_short Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_full Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_fullStr Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_full_unstemmed Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds
title_sort promoting erroneous divergent opinions increases the wisdom of crowds
publisher Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
publishDate 2024
url https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12784
https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976241252138
work_keys_str_mv AT navajasjoaquin promotingerroneousdivergentopinionsincreasesthewisdomofcrowds
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