Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices

The U.S. Midwest produces about a third of global corn and soybeans, two of the most important crops for humanity. Earlier literature has found that corn and soybean output is sensitive to weather in a nonlinear manner: yields benefit from moderate rain and temperatures, and generally suffer under d...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Cornejo, Magadalena, Merener, Nicolás, Merovich, Ezequiel
Formato: Documento de trabajo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: RedNIE Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía 2024
Materias:
Agricultura
Agriculture
Extreme events
Cambio Climático
Climate Change
Maíz
Corn
Soja
Soy-beans
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12381
Aporte de:
Repositorio Digital Universidad Torcuato Di Tella de Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
id I57-R163-20.500.13098-12381
record_format dspace
spelling I57-R163-20.500.13098-123812024-02-20T07:00:21Z Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices Cornejo, Magadalena Merener, Nicolás Merovich, Ezequiel Agricultura Agriculture Extreme events Cambio Climático Climate Change Maíz Corn Soja Soy-beans The U.S. Midwest produces about a third of global corn and soybeans, two of the most important crops for humanity. Earlier literature has found that corn and soybean output is sensitive to weather in a nonlinear manner: yields benefit from moderate rain and temperatures, and generally suffer under drought, excessive rain and extreme heat. In this study we explore how changing weather patterns and extreme events in the U.S. Midwest have impacted the valuation of corn and soybeans. Using data for 1971-2019 we find that the distribution of regional summer rain has experienced a significant shift towards the right since 1993, with a marked increase in extreme rain episodes. Prior to 1993, dry spells during the summer led to strongly higher crop prices and were exacerbated by extreme heat. Since 1993, extreme dry spells and larger storms have been both associated with price increases in the 10% range. We also find that the nonlinear price response to weather is compatible with the impact of weather on terminal yields. Our results suggest that changing weather patterns and extreme events in the U.S. Midwest have a strong influence in the valuation of corn and soybeans. 2024-02-19T15:11:26Z 2024-02-19T15:11:26Z 2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12381 en info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/ar/ 48 p. application/pdf application/pdf RedNIE Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía
institution Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
institution_str I-57
repository_str R-163
collection Repositorio Digital Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv en
topic Agricultura
Agriculture
Extreme events
Cambio Climático
Climate Change
Maíz
Corn
Soja
Soy-beans
spellingShingle Agricultura
Agriculture
Extreme events
Cambio Climático
Climate Change
Maíz
Corn
Soja
Soy-beans
Cornejo, Magadalena
Merener, Nicolás
Merovich, Ezequiel
Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices
topic_facet Agricultura
Agriculture
Extreme events
Cambio Climático
Climate Change
Maíz
Corn
Soja
Soy-beans
description The U.S. Midwest produces about a third of global corn and soybeans, two of the most important crops for humanity. Earlier literature has found that corn and soybean output is sensitive to weather in a nonlinear manner: yields benefit from moderate rain and temperatures, and generally suffer under drought, excessive rain and extreme heat. In this study we explore how changing weather patterns and extreme events in the U.S. Midwest have impacted the valuation of corn and soybeans. Using data for 1971-2019 we find that the distribution of regional summer rain has experienced a significant shift towards the right since 1993, with a marked increase in extreme rain episodes. Prior to 1993, dry spells during the summer led to strongly higher crop prices and were exacerbated by extreme heat. Since 1993, extreme dry spells and larger storms have been both associated with price increases in the 10% range. We also find that the nonlinear price response to weather is compatible with the impact of weather on terminal yields. Our results suggest that changing weather patterns and extreme events in the U.S. Midwest have a strong influence in the valuation of corn and soybeans.
format Documento de trabajo
publishedVersion
author Cornejo, Magadalena
Merener, Nicolás
Merovich, Ezequiel
author_facet Cornejo, Magadalena
Merener, Nicolás
Merovich, Ezequiel
author_sort Cornejo, Magadalena
title Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices
title_short Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices
title_full Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices
title_fullStr Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices
title_full_unstemmed Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices
title_sort extreme dry spells and larger storms in the u.s. midwest raise crop prices
publisher RedNIE Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía
publishDate 2024
url https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/12381
work_keys_str_mv AT cornejomagadalena extremedryspellsandlargerstormsintheusmidwestraisecropprices
AT merenernicolas extremedryspellsandlargerstormsintheusmidwestraisecropprices
AT merovichezequiel extremedryspellsandlargerstormsintheusmidwestraisecropprices
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