Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach

The following document is an application of the fiscal sustainability model for Costa Rican economy. The model uses the methodology of natural debt limit proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2009) as well as a set of Montecarlo simulations to estimate the probability of surpassing this limit. The model i...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Editorial, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica (EUNA), Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR), Espinosa Rodríguez, Julio César; Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica, Valerio Berrocal, Marco Vinicio; Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Universidad Nacional - Escuela de Economía 2014
Materias:
Simulation; Montecarlo method; Fiscal sustainability.
Simulación; Método Montecarlo; sostenibilidad fiscal
Acceso en línea:http://www.revistas.una.ac.cr/index.php/economia/article/view/6047
http://biblioteca.clacso.edu.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=cr/cr-008&d=article6047oai
Aporte de:
Red de Bibliotecas Virtuales de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO) de Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales
id I16-R122-article6047oai
record_format dspace
institution Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales
institution_str I-16
repository_str R-122
collection Red de Bibliotecas Virtuales de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO)
language Español
topic Simulation; Montecarlo method; Fiscal sustainability.
Simulación; Método Montecarlo; sostenibilidad fiscal
spellingShingle Simulation; Montecarlo method; Fiscal sustainability.
Simulación; Método Montecarlo; sostenibilidad fiscal
Editorial, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica (EUNA)
Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR)
Espinosa Rodríguez, Julio César; Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica
Valerio Berrocal, Marco Vinicio; Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica
Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach
topic_facet Simulation; Montecarlo method; Fiscal sustainability.
Simulación; Método Montecarlo; sostenibilidad fiscal
description The following document is an application of the fiscal sustainability model for Costa Rican economy. The model uses the methodology of natural debt limit proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2009) as well as a set of Montecarlo simulations to estimate the probability of surpassing this limit. The model is a simplification of the one applied by Tanner and Samake (2007) and Fernandez K. (2005). After forecasting a 3 year period a 76.09% probability to exceed the limit of debt was obtained  indicating that the economy has a high risk of unsustainable debt, in this context is was proposed, based on the IRF’s, a possible contractive fiscal politic was encountered.
format Artículo
publishedVersion
Artículo
publishedVersion
author Editorial, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica (EUNA)
Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR)
Espinosa Rodríguez, Julio César; Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica
Valerio Berrocal, Marco Vinicio; Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica
author_facet Editorial, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica (EUNA)
Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR)
Espinosa Rodríguez, Julio César; Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica
Valerio Berrocal, Marco Vinicio; Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica
author_sort Editorial, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica (EUNA)
title Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach
title_short Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach
title_full Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach
title_fullStr Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach
title_full_unstemmed Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach
title_sort fiscal sustainability in costa rica 1991-2013: a montecarlo approach
publisher Universidad Nacional - Escuela de Economía
publishDate 2014
url http://www.revistas.una.ac.cr/index.php/economia/article/view/6047
http://biblioteca.clacso.edu.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=cr/cr-008&d=article6047oai
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