The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050

Demographic data from Mexico has serious problems of coherence. Most recent estimations are increasing the discrepancies instead of reducing them. Based on analysis of inconsistencies in demographic data, we made a stochastic forecast of Mexican population for the period 2001-2050. The stochastic fo...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Carlos Galindo, Katja Kesseli
Formato: Artículo científico
Publicado: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México 2007
Materias:
Demografía
Stochastic forecast
consistent demographic estimations
data evaluation
Mexico
Acceso en línea:http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11205106
http://biblioteca.clacso.edu.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=mx/mx-011&d=11205106oai
Aporte de:
Red de Bibliotecas Virtuales de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO) de Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales
id I16-R122-11205106oai
record_format dspace
institution Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales
institution_str I-16
repository_str R-122
collection Red de Bibliotecas Virtuales de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO)
topic Demografía
Stochastic forecast
consistent demographic estimations
data evaluation
Mexico
spellingShingle Demografía
Stochastic forecast
consistent demographic estimations
data evaluation
Mexico
Carlos Galindo
Katja Kesseli
The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050
topic_facet Demografía
Stochastic forecast
consistent demographic estimations
data evaluation
Mexico
description Demographic data from Mexico has serious problems of coherence. Most recent estimations are increasing the discrepancies instead of reducing them. Based on analysis of inconsistencies in demographic data, we made a stochastic forecast of Mexican population for the period 2001-2050. The stochastic forecast is composed of random simulations of fourdifferent scenarios, which are given by dissimilarities on demographic estimations of the period 1985-2000. This technique allowed us to take into account the uncertainty embedded in Mexican data. Our results imply that is very unlikely (probability 0.07) that Mexican population size in 2005 was lower than 103.2 millions as published in the recent official population count. This result adds up to requests made by other researchers about revisiting and composing consistent demographic estimations.
format Artículo científico
Artículo científico
author Carlos Galindo
Katja Kesseli
author_facet Carlos Galindo
Katja Kesseli
author_sort Carlos Galindo
title The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050
title_short The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050
title_full The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050
title_fullStr The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050
title_full_unstemmed The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050
title_sort many mexicos. stochastic forecast 2001-2050
publisher Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
publishDate 2007
url http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11205106
http://biblioteca.clacso.edu.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=mx/mx-011&d=11205106oai
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bdutipo_str Repositorios
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