Probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for Rosario city, Argentina

Life expectancy at birth is one of the most useful indices for measuring the overall level of mortality and estimates the level of mortality more accurately than the crude mortality rate because it is independent of the age structure of the population. It also allows comparing the levels of mortalit...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Andreozzi, Lucía, Ventroni, Nora
Formato: Artículo revista
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Facultad de Ciencia Económicas y Estadísticaca - Universidad Nacional de Rosario 2021
Materias:
Functional data
Lee-Carter model
Forecast interval
Acceso en línea:https://saberes.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revista/article/view/256
Aporte de:
SaberEs de Universidad Nacional de Rosario
id I15-R211-article-256
record_format ojs
spelling I15-R211-article-2562021-12-30T02:17:18Z Probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for Rosario city, Argentina Andreozzi, Lucía Ventroni, Nora Functional data Lee-Carter model Forecast interval Life expectancy at birth is one of the most useful indices for measuring the overall level of mortality and estimates the level of mortality more accurately than the crude mortality rate because it is independent of the age structure of the population. It also allows comparing the levels of mortality for different populations in different historical moments. Probabilistic forecasting models generate age-specific mortality rates for future period, and from these results, it is possible to derive forecasts of life expectancy at birth and their corresponding confidence intervals. In this paper two models are applied; the precursor of probabilistic models for mortality: the Lee and Carter model (1992) and the last one proposed in the area: the functional data model developed by Hyndman and Ullah (2008). Both models predict mortality, and enable, through life tables based on mortality forecasts, to derive life expectancy at birth. It is applied to mortality data of Rosario city, in the period 1980 to 2015, so as to obtain point and interval forecasts for life expectancy at birth. Facultad de Ciencia Económicas y Estadísticaca - Universidad Nacional de Rosario 2021-12-30 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://saberes.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revista/article/view/256 10.35305/s.v9i2.256 SaberEs; Vol. 9 Núm. 2 (2017); 269-285 1852-4222 1852-4184 spa https://saberes.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revista/article/view/256/167167268
institution Universidad Nacional de Rosario
institution_str I-15
repository_str R-211
container_title_str SaberEs
language Español
format Artículo revista
topic Functional data
Lee-Carter model
Forecast interval
spellingShingle Functional data
Lee-Carter model
Forecast interval
Andreozzi, Lucía
Ventroni, Nora
Probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for Rosario city, Argentina
topic_facet Functional data
Lee-Carter model
Forecast interval
author Andreozzi, Lucía
Ventroni, Nora
author_facet Andreozzi, Lucía
Ventroni, Nora
author_sort Andreozzi, Lucía
title Probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for Rosario city, Argentina
title_short Probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for Rosario city, Argentina
title_full Probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for Rosario city, Argentina
title_fullStr Probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for Rosario city, Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for Rosario city, Argentina
title_sort probabilistic forecasts of life expectancy for rosario city, argentina
description Life expectancy at birth is one of the most useful indices for measuring the overall level of mortality and estimates the level of mortality more accurately than the crude mortality rate because it is independent of the age structure of the population. It also allows comparing the levels of mortality for different populations in different historical moments. Probabilistic forecasting models generate age-specific mortality rates for future period, and from these results, it is possible to derive forecasts of life expectancy at birth and their corresponding confidence intervals. In this paper two models are applied; the precursor of probabilistic models for mortality: the Lee and Carter model (1992) and the last one proposed in the area: the functional data model developed by Hyndman and Ullah (2008). Both models predict mortality, and enable, through life tables based on mortality forecasts, to derive life expectancy at birth. It is applied to mortality data of Rosario city, in the period 1980 to 2015, so as to obtain point and interval forecasts for life expectancy at birth.
publisher Facultad de Ciencia Económicas y Estadísticaca - Universidad Nacional de Rosario
publishDate 2021
url https://saberes.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revista/article/view/256
work_keys_str_mv AT andreozzilucia probabilisticforecastsoflifeexpectancyforrosariocityargentina
AT ventroninora probabilisticforecastsoflifeexpectancyforrosariocityargentina
first_indexed 2023-05-11T18:32:58Z
last_indexed 2023-05-11T18:32:58Z
_version_ 1765631388716892160

Ejemplares similares