The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia

This commentary analyzes the Bolivian political situation following the presidential elections of October 2025, an event that marked a paradigmatic rupture in the nation's political history with the unprecedented exclusion of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) from the runoff election and the t...

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Autor principal: Martínez, Carolina Belén
Formato: Artículo revista
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Centro de Estudios en Relaciones Internacionales de Rosario, CERIR 2026
Materias:
Bolivia
Fragmentación Política
Elecciones
Reconfiguración Política
Political Fragmentation
Elections
Political Realignment
Acceso en línea:https://revista-mici.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revistamici/article/view/202
Aporte de:
Revista Integración y Cooperación Internacional de Universidad Nacional de Rosario
id I15-R209-article-202
record_format ojs
spelling I15-R209-article-2022026-01-02T00:24:52Z The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia La fragmentación del MAS y la nueva geografía política en Bolivia Martínez, Carolina Belén Bolivia Fragmentación Política Elecciones Reconfiguración Política Bolivia Political Fragmentation Elections Political Realignment This commentary analyzes the Bolivian political situation following the presidential elections of October 2025, an event that marked a paradigmatic rupture in the nation's political history with the unprecedented exclusion of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) from the runoff election and the triumph of Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a center-right candidate. The study examines the underlying causal factors behind the MAS's unprecedented electoral decline after nearly two decades of hegemony, emphasizing political dimensions as variables in this reconfiguration. The central hypothesis is that the decline of the MAS project resulted from a convergence of political and economic tensions, with the implosion of Evo Morales's leadership - accentuated by his political return after 2019 and the absence of internal institutional renewal - constituting one of the most determining political factors. This leadership crisis, articulated with severe macroeconomic contraction, precipitated a pragmatic shift in popular voting toward a proposal promising institutional change and economic stability. The analysis also examines the implications of this new political scenario, identifying the possible programmatic axes of the Paz-Lara administration in a context of legislative fragmentation that demands inter-party consensus. El presente comentario analiza la coyuntura política boliviana posterior a las elecciones presidenciales del 19 de octubre de 2025, evento que marcó una ruptura paradigmática en la historia política nacional con la exclusión del Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) de la segunda vuelta electoral y el triunfo de Rodrigo Paz Pereira, candidato de centroderecha. El trabajo examina los factores causales subyacentes al declive electoral sin precedentes del MAS tras casi dos décadas de hegemonía, enfatizando en las dimensiones políticas como variables determinantes de esta reconfiguración. Se postula como hipótesis central que el declive del proyecto masista resultó de una convergencia de tensiones políticas y económicas, siendo la implosión del liderazgo de Evo Morales - acentuada por su retorno político posterior a 2019 y la ausencia de renovación institucional interna - uno de los factores políticos más determinantes. Esta crisis de liderazgo, articulada con una severa contracción macroeconómica, precipitó un desplazamiento pragmático del voto popular hacia una propuesta que prometía cambio institucional y estabilidad económica. El análisis también examina las implicancias del nuevo escenario político, identificando los posibles ejes programáticos de la administración Paz-Lara en un contexto de fragmentación legislativa que demanda consensos interpartidarios. Centro de Estudios en Relaciones Internacionales de Rosario, CERIR 2026-01-02 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Comentario evaluado por pares application/pdf https://revista-mici.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revistamici/article/view/202 Revista Integración y Cooperación Internacional; Núm. 42 (2026); 98-106 1852-9798 spa https://revista-mici.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revistamici/article/view/202/143 Derechos de autor 2026 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
institution Universidad Nacional de Rosario
institution_str I-15
repository_str R-209
container_title_str Revista Integración y Cooperación Internacional
language Español
format Artículo revista
topic Bolivia
Fragmentación Política
Elecciones
Reconfiguración Política
Bolivia
Political Fragmentation
Elections
Political Realignment
spellingShingle Bolivia
Fragmentación Política
Elecciones
Reconfiguración Política
Bolivia
Political Fragmentation
Elections
Political Realignment
Martínez, Carolina Belén
The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia
topic_facet Bolivia
Fragmentación Política
Elecciones
Reconfiguración Política
Bolivia
Political Fragmentation
Elections
Political Realignment
author Martínez, Carolina Belén
author_facet Martínez, Carolina Belén
author_sort Martínez, Carolina Belén
title The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia
title_short The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia
title_full The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia
title_fullStr The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia
title_full_unstemmed The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia
title_sort fragmentation of the mas and the new political geography in bolivia
description This commentary analyzes the Bolivian political situation following the presidential elections of October 2025, an event that marked a paradigmatic rupture in the nation's political history with the unprecedented exclusion of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) from the runoff election and the triumph of Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a center-right candidate. The study examines the underlying causal factors behind the MAS's unprecedented electoral decline after nearly two decades of hegemony, emphasizing political dimensions as variables in this reconfiguration. The central hypothesis is that the decline of the MAS project resulted from a convergence of political and economic tensions, with the implosion of Evo Morales's leadership - accentuated by his political return after 2019 and the absence of internal institutional renewal - constituting one of the most determining political factors. This leadership crisis, articulated with severe macroeconomic contraction, precipitated a pragmatic shift in popular voting toward a proposal promising institutional change and economic stability. The analysis also examines the implications of this new political scenario, identifying the possible programmatic axes of the Paz-Lara administration in a context of legislative fragmentation that demands inter-party consensus.
publisher Centro de Estudios en Relaciones Internacionales de Rosario, CERIR
publishDate 2026
url https://revista-mici.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revistamici/article/view/202
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first_indexed 2026-01-04T05:05:41Z
last_indexed 2026-01-04T05:05:41Z
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