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01586cam-a22003374a-4500 |
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20180214134401.0 |
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|a 013185190
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|a 0691123020 (alk. paper)
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|a 9780691123028
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|a NLGGC
|b 269164251
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|a DLC
|c DLC
|d YDX
|d UKM
|d BAKER
|d IXA
|d YBM
|d NLGGC
|d TTU
|d U@S
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|a pcc
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| 049 |
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|a U@SA
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| 050 |
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|a JA74.5
|b .T38 2005
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| 082 |
0 |
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|a 320/.01/9
|2 22
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Tetlock, Philip.
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| 245 |
1 |
0 |
|a Expert political judgment :
|b how good is it? how can we know? /
|c Philip E. Tetlock.
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| 260 |
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|a Princeton, N.J. :
|b Princeton University Press,
|c c2005.
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| 300 |
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|a xvi, 321 p. :
|b ill. ;
|c 24 cm.
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| 504 |
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|a Includes bibliographical references and index.
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| 505 |
0 |
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|a Quantifying the unquantifiable -- The ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism -- Knowing the limits of one's knowledge: foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs -- Honoring reputational bets: foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs -- Contemplating counterfactuals: foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenarios -- The hedgehogs strike back -- Are we open-minded enough to acknowledge the limits of open-mindedness? -- Exploring the limits on objectivity and accountability.
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| 650 |
|
0 |
|a Political psychology.
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| 650 |
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0 |
|a Ideology.
|