Changes in the predictability of the daily thermal structure in southern South America using information theory
Spatiotemporal behaviors of predictability of climate system were studied. These were analyzed as changes in persistence and system memory using information theory. This study was performed by coupling a cluster analysis algorithm and conditional entropy in southern South America. The spatial analys...
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | JOUR |
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| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00948276_v36_n9_p_Naumann |
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| Sumario: | Spatiotemporal behaviors of predictability of climate system were studied. These were analyzed as changes in persistence and system memory using information theory. This study was performed by coupling a cluster analysis algorithm and conditional entropy in southern South America. The spatial analysis of the entropy showed that a meridional gradient exists in the entire region, and its maximum is in the southern region. In this study, the gradients of this property in the northern regions yield predictabilities that are twice those in the southern part of South America. Temporal changes in conditional entropy were observed with quasi-cyclical variations. The low frequency variability estimate in the conditional entropy indicates that the dominant wave is approximately 18 years. The changes observed in the persistence and conditional entropy, especially in groups that representing the warm and cold days, suggest that changes in objective forecasting are necessary. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union. |
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