Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin

There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin. As RCMs have biases i...

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Autores principales:	Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio, Montroull, Natalia Blanca, Camilloni, Ines Angela
Publicado:	2013
Materias:	future hydrology scenarios impact studies La Plata Basin regional climate models climate modeling future prospect hydrological modeling regional climate streamflow twenty first century
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral
record_format	dspace
spelling	paper:paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral2023-06-08T16:24:35Z Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Montroull, Natalia Blanca Camilloni, Ines Angela future hydrology scenarios impact studies La Plata Basin regional climate models climate modeling future prospect hydrological modeling regional climate streamflow twenty first century La Plata Basin There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin. As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered. © 2014 © 2014 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research. Fil:Saurral, R.I. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Montroull, N.B. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Camilloni, I.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2013 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	future hydrology scenarios impact studies La Plata Basin regional climate models climate modeling future prospect hydrological modeling regional climate streamflow twenty first century La Plata Basin
spellingShingle	future hydrology scenarios impact studies La Plata Basin regional climate models climate modeling future prospect hydrological modeling regional climate streamflow twenty first century La Plata Basin Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Montroull, Natalia Blanca Camilloni, Ines Angela Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
topic_facet	future hydrology scenarios impact studies La Plata Basin regional climate models climate modeling future prospect hydrological modeling regional climate streamflow twenty first century La Plata Basin
description	There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin. As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered. © 2014 © 2014 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.
author	Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Montroull, Natalia Blanca Camilloni, Ines Angela
author_facet	Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Montroull, Natalia Blanca Camilloni, Ines Angela
author_sort	Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
title	Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_short	Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_full	Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_fullStr	Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_full_unstemmed	Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_sort	development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over la plata basin
publishDate	2013
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral
work_keys_str_mv	AT saurralramiroignacio developmentofstatisticallyunbiasedtwentyfirstcenturyhydrologyscenariosoverlaplatabasin AT montroullnataliablanca developmentofstatisticallyunbiasedtwentyfirstcenturyhydrologyscenariosoverlaplatabasin AT camilloniinesangela developmentofstatisticallyunbiasedtwentyfirstcenturyhydrologyscenariosoverlaplatabasin
_version_	1768542100720189440

Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin

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