Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties

This work focuses on evaluating the climate change projected by the end of the 21st century under the SRES A2 emission scenario over southern South America using the regional model MM5. The model projects: (i) an increase of precipitation over central Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil during su...

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Autores principales: Cabre, Maria Fernanda, Solman, Silvina Alicia, Nuñez, Mario Néstor
Publicado: 2016
Materias:
Climate change scenarios
Regional climate modeling
South America
Uncertainties
air temperature
annual variation
climate change
climate prediction
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
twenty first century
uncertainty analysis
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Uruguay
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v29_n1_p35_Cabre
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v29_n1_p35_Cabre
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_01876236_v29_n1_p35_Cabre
record_format dspace
spelling paper:paper_01876236_v29_n1_p35_Cabre2023-06-08T15:19:44Z Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties Cabre, Maria Fernanda Solman, Silvina Alicia Nuñez, Mario Néstor Climate change scenarios Regional climate modeling South America Uncertainties air temperature annual variation climate change climate prediction precipitation (climatology) regional climate twenty first century uncertainty analysis Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay This work focuses on evaluating the climate change projected by the end of the 21st century under the SRES A2 emission scenario over southern South America using the regional model MM5. The model projects: (i) an increase of precipitation over central Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil during summer and fall; (ii) a decrease in precipitation over most of the study domain during winter and spring; (iii) an important decrease in precipitation over central and southern Chile, through the year. In general, the projected temperature increase depends on the season and the examined area; particularly, it is highest over tropical and subtropical latitudes in spring and over high latitudes in summer. The MM5 model projects: (i) an increase of the interannual precipitation variability of precipitation over central Argentina and Uruguay regardless the season; (ii) a slight decrease in interannual temperature variability over large extents of Argentina for summer and winter; (iii) a slight increase in interannual temperature variability at transition seasons; with highest values over central Chile in autumn and over north central Argentina in spring. From the reliability assessment of regional climate projections, it can be concluded that signal-to-noise ratio is high for temperature and low for precipitation. Therefore, the MM5 model is a useful tool in the generation of regional climate change scenarios of high resolution over southern South America, particularly for temperature, and is a starting point to perform studies related to impacts of climate change. Fil:Cabré, M.F. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Solman, S. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Núñez, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2016 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v29_n1_p35_Cabre http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v29_n1_p35_Cabre
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Climate change scenarios
Regional climate modeling
South America
Uncertainties
air temperature
annual variation
climate change
climate prediction
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
twenty first century
uncertainty analysis
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Uruguay
spellingShingle Climate change scenarios
Regional climate modeling
South America
Uncertainties
air temperature
annual variation
climate change
climate prediction
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
twenty first century
uncertainty analysis
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Uruguay
Cabre, Maria Fernanda
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Nuñez, Mario Néstor
Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties
topic_facet Climate change scenarios
Regional climate modeling
South America
Uncertainties
air temperature
annual variation
climate change
climate prediction
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
twenty first century
uncertainty analysis
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Uruguay
description This work focuses on evaluating the climate change projected by the end of the 21st century under the SRES A2 emission scenario over southern South America using the regional model MM5. The model projects: (i) an increase of precipitation over central Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil during summer and fall; (ii) a decrease in precipitation over most of the study domain during winter and spring; (iii) an important decrease in precipitation over central and southern Chile, through the year. In general, the projected temperature increase depends on the season and the examined area; particularly, it is highest over tropical and subtropical latitudes in spring and over high latitudes in summer. The MM5 model projects: (i) an increase of the interannual precipitation variability of precipitation over central Argentina and Uruguay regardless the season; (ii) a slight decrease in interannual temperature variability over large extents of Argentina for summer and winter; (iii) a slight increase in interannual temperature variability at transition seasons; with highest values over central Chile in autumn and over north central Argentina in spring. From the reliability assessment of regional climate projections, it can be concluded that signal-to-noise ratio is high for temperature and low for precipitation. Therefore, the MM5 model is a useful tool in the generation of regional climate change scenarios of high resolution over southern South America, particularly for temperature, and is a starting point to perform studies related to impacts of climate change.
author Cabre, Maria Fernanda
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Nuñez, Mario Néstor
author_facet Cabre, Maria Fernanda
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Nuñez, Mario Néstor
author_sort Cabre, Maria Fernanda
title Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties
title_short Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties
title_full Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties
title_fullStr Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties
title_full_unstemmed Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties
title_sort regional climate change scenarios over southern south america for future climate (2080-2099) using the mm5 model. mean, interannual variability and uncertainties
publishDate 2016
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v29_n1_p35_Cabre
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v29_n1_p35_Cabre
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AT solmansilvinaalicia regionalclimatechangescenariosoversouthernsouthamericaforfutureclimate20802099usingthemm5modelmeaninterannualvariabilityanduncertainties
AT nunezmarionestor regionalclimatechangescenariosoversouthernsouthamericaforfutureclimate20802099usingthemm5modelmeaninterannualvariabilityanduncertainties
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