Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations

Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional pro...

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Autores principales:	Cabre, Maria Fernanda, Solman, Silvina Alicia, Nuñez, Mario Néstor
Publicado:	2010
Materias:	Climate condition Climate simulation Dynamical downscaling Emission scenario Global climate simulations Global-mean temperature Mean temperature Precipitation change Regional climate changes Regional model Seasonal changes South America Climate models Estimation Scalability Climate change climate change downscaling precipitation (climatology) regional climate seasonal variation simulation temperature effect twenty first century
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre
record_format	dspace
spelling	paper:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre2023-06-08T15:14:29Z Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations Cabre, Maria Fernanda Solman, Silvina Alicia Nuñez, Mario Néstor Climate condition Climate simulation Dynamical downscaling Emission scenario Global climate simulations Global-mean temperature Mean temperature Precipitation change Regional climate changes Regional model Seasonal changes South America Climate models Estimation Scalability Climate change climate change downscaling precipitation (climatology) regional climate seasonal variation simulation temperature effect twenty first century South America Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional projections for a variety of scenarios and periods, the 2020s or the 2050s, are often required by the impact community. The pattern scaling technique is used to estimate information on climate change for periods and scenarios not simulated by the regional model. We based our study on regional simulations performed over southern South America for present climate conditions and two emission scenarios at the end of the twenty first century. We used the pattern scaling technique to estimate mean seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation for the 2020s and the 2050s. The validity of the scalability assumptions underlying the pattern scaling technique for estimating near future regional climate change scenarios over southern South America is assessed. The results show that the pattern scaling works well for estimating mean temperature changes for which the regional changes are linearly related to the global mean temperature changes. For precipitation changes, the validity of the scalability assumption is weaker. The errors of estimating precipitation changes are comparable to those inherent to the regional model and to the projected changes themselves. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009. Fil:Cabré, M.F. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Solman, S.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Nuñez, M.N. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2010 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Climate condition Climate simulation Dynamical downscaling Emission scenario Global climate simulations Global-mean temperature Mean temperature Precipitation change Regional climate changes Regional model Seasonal changes South America Climate models Estimation Scalability Climate change climate change downscaling precipitation (climatology) regional climate seasonal variation simulation temperature effect twenty first century South America
spellingShingle	Climate condition Climate simulation Dynamical downscaling Emission scenario Global climate simulations Global-mean temperature Mean temperature Precipitation change Regional climate changes Regional model Seasonal changes South America Climate models Estimation Scalability Climate change climate change downscaling precipitation (climatology) regional climate seasonal variation simulation temperature effect twenty first century South America Cabre, Maria Fernanda Solman, Silvina Alicia Nuñez, Mario Néstor Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
topic_facet	Climate condition Climate simulation Dynamical downscaling Emission scenario Global climate simulations Global-mean temperature Mean temperature Precipitation change Regional climate changes Regional model Seasonal changes South America Climate models Estimation Scalability Climate change climate change downscaling precipitation (climatology) regional climate seasonal variation simulation temperature effect twenty first century South America
description	Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional projections for a variety of scenarios and periods, the 2020s or the 2050s, are often required by the impact community. The pattern scaling technique is used to estimate information on climate change for periods and scenarios not simulated by the regional model. We based our study on regional simulations performed over southern South America for present climate conditions and two emission scenarios at the end of the twenty first century. We used the pattern scaling technique to estimate mean seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation for the 2020s and the 2050s. The validity of the scalability assumptions underlying the pattern scaling technique for estimating near future regional climate change scenarios over southern South America is assessed. The results show that the pattern scaling works well for estimating mean temperature changes for which the regional changes are linearly related to the global mean temperature changes. For precipitation changes, the validity of the scalability assumption is weaker. The errors of estimating precipitation changes are comparable to those inherent to the regional model and to the projected changes themselves. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.
author	Cabre, Maria Fernanda Solman, Silvina Alicia Nuñez, Mario Néstor
author_facet	Cabre, Maria Fernanda Solman, Silvina Alicia Nuñez, Mario Néstor
author_sort	Cabre, Maria Fernanda
title	Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_short	Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_full	Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_fullStr	Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_full_unstemmed	Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_sort	creating regional climate change scenarios over southern south america for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: validity and limitations
publishDate	2010
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre
work_keys_str_mv	AT cabremariafernanda creatingregionalclimatechangescenariosoversouthernsouthamericaforthe2020sand2050susingthepatternscalingtechniquevalidityandlimitations AT solmansilvinaalicia creatingregionalclimatechangescenariosoversouthernsouthamericaforthe2020sand2050susingthepatternscalingtechniquevalidityandlimitations AT nunezmarionestor creatingregionalclimatechangescenariosoversouthernsouthamericaforthe2020sand2050susingthepatternscalingtechniquevalidityandlimitations
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Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations

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